🟩Approaching Short Term Buy Re-Entry Range. Lower Levels Expected Before Tactical Rebound
Research: November 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2026
Related Notes (Sasol)
Date/Time: Monday, 09 November 2026 at 15h04
For our clients trading or holding Sasol (SOL)
Disclosure: The commentary below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own data.
Currently, price action for Sasol Limited is executing a brutal downward expansion, with the active daily sequence plunging directly through the 75-day EMA (23,432c) to close near the session lows at 22,938c. Initiative sellers have completely overwhelmed intermediate demand following the massive cyclical blow-off top near the 30,000c handle in late October. This rapid liquidation cascade—shedding over 20% from the peak—has sliced vertically through the fast-moving average cluster, trapping late momentum buyers and forcing a severe structural dislocation.
Moving average structure reveals a market suffering acute short-term technical damage, transitioning from a secular markup into an aggressive cyclical flush:
🟥 Price below 8-day EMA (25,868c)
🟥 Price below 21-day EMA (26,182c)
🟥 Price below 75-day EMA (23,432c)
🟩 Price above 200-day SMA (19,798c)
The predefined strategic architecture projects a mechanical capitulation flush directly into the 20,846c – 21,882c provisional buy re-entry block. Should institutional limit buyers actively defend this cyan deep-value zone, the resulting structural base will provide the necessary technical foundation to arrest the violent downtrend and launch a protracted recovery leg. A confirmed daily close beneath the strict 20,181c stop-loss threshold would invalidate this macro base-building thesis, exposing the asset to a full capitulation test of the 200-day SMA.
Tactical Action: Accumulate on weakness (into zone) 🟢
Best Probability Over 3 Days Price is favored to experience extreme localized volatility as it probes lower into the 22,000c handle. Given the sheer velocity of the active daily liquidation candle (down 7.13% on the session), immediate V-shaped recoveries are highly improbable. Downward momentum will likely force price directly into the upper boundary of the cyan buy block at 21,882c as weak hands are fully flushed. Expect expanding candle ranges and heavy intraday swings as institutional limit buyers begin absorbing the panic selling.
Best Probability Over 5 Days Over the 5-day horizon, the primary focus shifts to establishing a structural floor within the core of the designated demand block between 20,846c and 21,882c. If responsive buyers step in as anticipated by the strategic blueprint, look for the formation of a distinct daily reversal structure—such as a massive lower rejection wick or a multi-day lateral basing pattern. Failure to halt the slide and stabilize within this window threatens the 20,181c invalidation line.
READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS
For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital.
The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include:
Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes
Momentum indicators
Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance
Candle structure
Moving averages and standard deviation
Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.
THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK
It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:
The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.
Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)
Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position
Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)
Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.
Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)
Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)
Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal
Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend
Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)
Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)
Whether a share lacks directional bias.
The data set is available in real-time (on request)
The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.
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