💡Further Comment: Glencore Plc - A Poor Buy/Long Reward-To Risk. Higher Levels Expected Before Bearish Reversal

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za

I'm adding the Price Action Model - take with a 15-minute delayed price.

---

Previous Post: How To Trade Glencore Plc (GLN)

Published Sunday 29 March for Monday, 30 March.

An existing buy/long idea from 6547c (see chart reference), the share reached our long term target of 9400c (the 200-week SMA). Since then, the upward momentum has continued with the share outperforming it's JSE-listed peers and trading above R120. On the monthly time frame, the share is trading in an 'OVERBOUGHT' range. On the weekly, a 'HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT' regime is in place while on the daily time frame, a 'STRONG' regime is in place. An upside extension from current levels is likely to place the share in an OVERBOUGHT range on the weekly and monthly time frames and 'APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT on the daily time frame. What's the risk of buying now? Overbought conditions could start to come into play. What's the risk of sell now? Strong upward momentum can remain in place longer than anticipated.

---

READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS

For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital.

The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include:

• Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes

• Momentum indicators

• Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance

• Candle structure

• Moving averages and standard deviation

Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

• It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

• The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

• Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

• Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

• Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

• Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

• Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

• Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

• Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

• Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

• Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

• Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

• Whether a share lacks directional bias.

• The data set is available in real-time (on request)

• The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital