🎥Video: Thungela Resources: Intraday Cash Flow

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

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Previous Post (02 December, Pre-Market): Thungela Resources: Trading Levels + Momentum Analysis

Highlights:

• Vertical Momentum Spike: The Daily chart is witnessing an aggressive liquidity inflow. The Ultra Short Term (2-Day) momentum indicator has surged deep into the "Overbought" tier. This indicates extreme buyer urgency and typically signifies a "panic buy" or short-squeeze scenario where price velocity is unsustainable in the immediate term.

• Structural Trend Repair: Crucially, the Base Term (14-Day) trend has crossed firmly into the "Strong" tier. This is a significant technical development, confirming that this rally is not merely a "dead cat bounce" but a structural shift in daily market sentiment, supported by widening participation.

• Full Spectrum Alignment: All four momentum timeframes—from the fast-twitch 2-Day to the structural 14-Day—are sloping sharply upwards in unison. This synchronized thrust creates a powerful tailwind, suggesting that any short-term dips are likely to be aggressively bought by latecomers.

• Resistance Convergence: The price is fast approaching a well-defined overhead supply zone between 8,500c and 8,800c. With the short-term momentum indicators effectively "pinned" at their ceilings, this resistance level is likely to trigger a pause or profit-taking event.

• Best Action Timeline:

  • 3 to 5 days (1 week): Fade/Trim. With the fastest momentum indicator pinned in the "Overbought" zone, the statistical probability of a pullback is high. Do not chase. Look to trim tactical longs into strength.

  • 6 to 10 days (2 weeks): Wait for the Higher Low. Allow the momentum to cool from "Overbought" to "Neutral." Watch for support to form around the breakout level of 8,000c.

  • 11 to 15 days (3 weeks): Re-Entry. If the 14-Day Base Trend remains in the "Strong" tier, re-enter long positions for a breakout attempt above 8,800c.

  • 16 to 20 days (4 weeks): Trend Extension. Target the 9,500c - 10,000c zone as the intermediate trend matures.

Bullish Scenario: Momentum Overdrive: The market ignores the overbought reading (a sign of immense strength). The stock blasts through the 8,800c resistance on high volume, triggering a further squeeze toward 9,500c without a meaningful pullback.

Base Scenario: Bull Flag Consolidation: The stock stalls at resistance (8,500c - 8,600c) and drifts sideways. Price holds above 8,000c, allowing the Ultra Short Term momentum to reset from its extremes down to a sustainable level.

Bearish Scenario: Rejection & Fade: The overbought signal marks a local top. The price rejects hard at 8,500c and falls back below 7,800c, invalidating the breakout and trapping recent buyers.

Core Thesis Thungela has shifted from a stabilization phase to an impulsive recovery. The synchronization of all daily trend indicators points to a genuine change in character. However, the current velocity is too hot to chase. The thesis is bullish on the structure but defensive on immediate timing. The optimal strategy is to wait for the "froth" to come off the short-term indicators before positioning for the next leg higher.

Comprehensive Summary The momentum profile is highly constructive but extended. The fact that the Base Term trend has joined the rally in the "Strong" tier gives this move credibility. However, when the Ultra Short Term indicator is pinned at the top of the range, the market is historically prone to a sharp, reflexive volatility event to clear out leverage. Patience is the key edge here.

Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis (Daily Focus)

• Ultra Short Term Indication: OVERBOUGHT | Slope: Sharply Upwards

• Short Term Indication: HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM | Slope: Sharply Upwards

• Mid Term Indication: HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM | Slope: Sharply Upwards

• Base Term Indication: STRONG | Slope: Upwards

Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) Bullish Breakout: A daily close above 8,800c clears the last major hurdle before the 10,000c level. Bearish Failure: A close back below 7,800c would damage the new uptrend structure.

Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance: 8,500c - 8,800c (Previous Consolidation Highs). Pivot Support: 8,000c (Psychological / Breakout Level). Critical Structural Support: 7,500c (Trend Defense). Trend Floor: 7,200c (Recent Lows).

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Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable)

READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned.

"Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

• It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

• The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

• Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

• Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

• Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

• Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

• Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

• Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

• Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

• Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

• Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

• Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

• Whether a share lacks directional bias.

• The data set is available in real-time (on request)

• The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.

TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm 

Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops.

TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim

FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc.

TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' 

This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES.

Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term

1. Trade with the primary trend.

2. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down.

3. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period.

4. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels.

5. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high.

6. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high.

7. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss.

8. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up.

9. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow.

10. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down.

11. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against.

12. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels.

13. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels.

14. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working.

15. Above all, know your time horizon.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital