Notable is a page dedicated to fast-paced, running research commentary intended to alert to client to a potentially significant level or development, mainly from a technical perspective. Further, the content gives clients access to the analyst's perspective of an instrument which can help in preparing for a potential trading opportunity.
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Wednesday 08-November-2023, 06h30 Exxaro Resources (EXX, 18473c). Whilst seemingly insignificant, trend lines can help a trader manage risk and uncover opportunities. False breakout at the previously highlighted demand-supply zone, while having traded in an overbought range. Bearish unwind in the mid to late stages of a rising wedge technical formation. Clients were alerted to a buy at R145. The share traded over R200 in recent days. Well done to all who took the opportunity to trade. As of yesterday's close, this is what the Tactical Trading Guide stated for the 3 major time frames:
Wednesday 08-November-2023, 06h30 Thungela Resources (TGA, 15621c). The medium term resistance level at R186 to R190 held followed by a bearish reversal, breach of channel and a loss of the 50-day exponential moving average. As noted last week: "For now, the 50-day EMA is acting as a support level, which however the candle structure appears weak which may mean that the share could see a 'flush' to lower levels." The R151 to R154 range will be my first level of interest.
Wednesday 08-November-2023, 06h30 Momentum Metropolitan (MTM, 2133c). As highlighted on Monday, the share traded in an overbought range, with the price in line with the upper boundary of the upward trending channel. On Monday, a 'doji' - signaling indecision and yesterday, a downside move of 3.66%. There are opportunities to generate cash flow over the short term.
Wednesday 08-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Top 40 Index. Following the ultra short term breadth thrust, which saw a significant number of constituents approaching over/overbought range at the beginning of this week, the index has been rejected at the upper boundary of the downward trending channel which is in line with the previous demand-supply zone (horizontal blue shaded trend line).
Tuesday 08-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close.
Tuesday 07-November-2023, 16h38 Brent Crude Oil. My last comment on oil was on 12 September, which was as follows: "We have seen a significant move over the past 9 weeks, with Brent higher from $75 to $92. The short term trend is strong with the commodity recently having cleared resistance of a 9-month base. While the trend is up, traders should are alerted to the momentum indicators which may indicate the price nearing overbought conditions, with the 7-day RSI at 80 and the 14-day RSI at 73. In the short term, the buy/long side reward-to-risk is becoming less appealing vs prior weeks. The commodity trade slightly higher to $95 but has since struggled to retain it's bullish momentum, with sellers taking control as the price retraced toward it's lowest level since August. Next, the lower boundary of the parallel channel is in focus. This is in line with the horizontal swing lows near $81 seen on 24 August.
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Tuesday 07-November-2023, 14h34 Gold ($1960). Comment as per the telegram group. Anyone trading with an ultra short term time frame? I don't usually publish 2-hour charts however, in the last 90 minutes, the I've been looking at Gold on the aforementioned time frame. I've noticed that it's nearing oversold on 2H and 4H while also at horizontal support and at the lower boundary of the parallel channel. The candle structure (at the time of writing remains weak however the reward-to-risk for a small bounce is starting to appear favourable. The arrows on the chart represents a potential price path. Can it trade lower? Yes. Can it first develop a base? Yes. As mentioned, an ultra short term view. Get In. Get Out. Get Paid.
I'm looking forward to your thoughts.
Tuesday 07-November-2023, 06h30 Woolworths Holdings (WHL, 7346c). 3 Points To Note (1) Ultra Short Term Rating = Overbought (2) Candle Structure = 'Hanging Man' Formation (3) Trading at the upper boundary of it's 50-day 2 standard deviation linear regression channel. Can it trade higher? YES. Can it develop a short term top? YES.
Tuesday 07-November-2023, 06h30 Sibanye Stillwater (SSW, c) and Impala Platinum (IMP). Bullish Reversal From Buy Signal. We have started to see some buying in the shares/sector, with the constituents reversing off oversold levels. In my response to Taahir's query on 25 October, I highlighted both SSW's and IMP's automated SHORT TERM reading which stated that the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a buy/long position. On the same data sheet, IMP showed us that for both the short term and medium term, a buy/long position had become attractive. Below is the Tactical Trading Guide for the Platinum & Precious Metals Sector on 25 October.
Tuesday 07-November-2023, 06h30 Anglo American Plc (AGL, 50641c). Update. Upside follow-through on highlighted pivot. On Monday, International Investment Bank Jefferies upgraded the share to a 'buy' rating with a price target of R654. The bullish reversal is in line with my previous view (25 October) which considered the pivot of R484.50 as a key level for market participants looking to capture short term upside. Yesterday's high = R508. Below is the Tactical Trading Guide for AGL as of yesterday's close followed by the chart, also at yesterday's close.
Tuesday 07-November-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen: SHORT TERM - 'Would Not Enter Buy/Long At Current Levels. Reward-To-Risk Is Unattractive': Stocks That Match: 'CPI, DCP, PPH, TFG, TRU'.
Tuesday 07-November-2023, 06h30 Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP, 2703c). In with the above strategy screen, the chart below highlights how I currently view DCP. Here, I'd expect another attempt HIGHER, however I would monitor for a candle which suggests that the short term upward momentum is slowing (either via a 'doji', 'long upper tail', 'dark cloud cover' etc.)
Tuesday 07-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Tuesday 07-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close.
Monday 06-November-2023, 06h30 Analyst Thoughts: Over the course of this week we saw a large number of constituents emerging their short term oversold conditions to neutral then strong then further up to a high bullish momentum/approaching overbought condition. Some names have also started to trade in an overbought range when measured on the ultra short term time frame.
The graphic below is a summary of the relevant regimes for various shares. This helps a trader understand if share is either, overbought, in a high bullish momentum/approaching overbought phase, strong, neutral, weak, high bearish momentum/approaching oversold or oversold.
My comment last week Monday (pre-market) on this page was as follows: "JSE + Global: Further downside could see extreme ultra short term conditions develop, triggering potential bullish reversal opportunities."
Monday, 06 November 2023 06h30. JSE Top 40 Index. The above-mentioned bullish reversal was also reflected at an index level with the JSE Top 40 having recovered off Wednesday's lows, with upside follow-through/sharp bullish reversal on Thursday. At current levels, the index is at the upper boundary of the downward trending channel and at the previous demand (support) zone.
Monday 06-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Monday 06-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Relative Sector Ratings as at Friday's close.
Monday 06-November-2023, 06h30 Momentum Metropolitan Holdings (MTM). The share is trading at a multi-month high relative to the broader market, however appears extended to the upside, with a potential short/sell opportunity looming. As of Friday afternoon, the Tactical Trading Guide stated the following: "Would not enter buy/long at current levels. The reward-to-risk is unappealing".
Technical Perspective #1: At the upper boundary of rising channel. The could overshoot to the upside before developing a short term top, followed by a bearish reversal.
Technical Perspective #2: Nearing multi-year overhead resistance.
Monday 06-November-2023, 06h30 Capitec Bank (CPI, 185494c). Short Term = High bullish momentum. The share is nearing the the upper boundary of it's parallel channel, which is in line with the previous demand-supply zone (circled areas). It could and is likely to overshoot this range however this could open up an opportunity for a tactical short/sell at or around the aforementioned resistance zone.
Monday 06-November-2023, 06h30 Standard Bank (SBK, 19400c). The Tactical Trading Guide is available to clients upon request. The data set represents the end-of-day reading for the previous session and acts as a guide to managing risk and uncovering trading opportunities. It covers over 75 shares and is sorted by sector ease of viewing. Standard Bank (SBK) has seen considerable upside follow-through from the reading on which stated: "Weak within a sideways consolidation. Has recently been sold off. Expect a small rebound". From R174, the share has advanced to test a high of 19638c.
Monday 06-November-2023, 06h30 Commodity Multi-Time Frame Ratings
Monday 06-November-2023, 06h30 Sappi (SAP, 3932c). On Tuesday 17 October (pre-market) I highlighted the chart which made reference to the short term overbought conditions at a key resistance zone. Subsequently, the share declined from above R46 to a low of R37.76 and, is currently trading at the lower boundary of the parallel channel. On Thursday, a long lower tail was printed, while on Friday the share held within the previous day's range. While oversold conditions are present, the near-term risk is the company's earnings which are due on Thursday 09 November. If the share is sold off further the swing lows seen at the beginning of August will be a new level of interest while a positive surprise (if any) could support a bullish reversal from at or around current levels.
Monday 06-November-2023, 06h30 Sasol (SOL, 23200c). Can it trade lower? Yes. Candle it become more oversold? Yes. However, the candle structure, an inverted hammer, is one of interest which is often found at or near the tail end of a downward trend. In this holding above or around the previous session's open would support a bullish reversal.
Monday 03-November-2023, 06h30 The Foschini Group (TFG, 10924c). Timing is possible, but never easy. Although I always make my best effort to achieve it, my timing will NEVER be 100% perfect. On 12 October I discussed the channel break and potential failed head and shoulder technical formation (a bullish setup).. The upside follow-through did not happen immediately as we saw a minor pullback, which was then followed by aggressive buying. Many times, this business requires massive patience or, as I like to call it: 'PAY-tience'. Below are two charts: (1) my original perspective on 12 October and (2) the updated chart. Well done to all who capitalized on the opportunity.
Monday 03-November-2023, 06h30 Equally-Weighted Chemicals vs JSE Top 40 Index. Correction in an upward trend. The idea would be to re-enter a the sector on a relative basis near the lower boundary of the upward trending channel.
Monday 06-November-2023, 06h30 Educational Post
Generating Cash Flow Through Active Trading Strategies: Truworths (TRU) As An Example
Clients of Unum Capital have benefitted from the focus on price and in particular, the short term time frame that looks to capitalize off volatility of share prices.
Going forward, I'm looking for TRU to unwind from an overbought range however, here are two occasions where clients have been alerted to opportunities on both the buy (long) and sell (short) side.
Sell/Short. Clients are regularly alerted to oversold/overbought conditions which helps to recognized potential trading opportunities. In this instance, the overbought status and price extension versus the 200-day were key reasons for the sell-side reward-to-risk being favourable. From 7647c, we saw the share price trade down to 6808c, exceeding the downside target.
Buy/Long/Cover Short. Clients are regularly alerted to potentially significant developments on the standard deviation screens, from either a buy, sell or neutral perspective. On 21 October (pre-market) a chart was highlighted which showed the share trading at the lower boundary of it's 50-day 2 standard deviation linear regression channel. From 6917c, we saw the share gain 18.3% to close at 8183c on Friday.
Clients of Unum Capital have access to a research insights and data, which include combination of strategies that are used to identify trading opportunities, assess reward-to-risk and manage risk.
To trade, get in touch with the Unum Capital trading desk today.
What is the 'next best probability' for Truworths?
The share has appreciated by 19.8% off it's recent lows (19 October).
At current levels, using multiple metrics, the share is in an overbought range. Despite being in an overbought range, it can trade higher, however the reward-to-risk is unappealing and does not favour buyers. .
Candle Structure: The bullish bars have been developed near the tail end of an upside move. What matters for those looking to sell is the follow-up candle, which can be as follows: a 'doji' which signals indecision, a 'long upper tail' which may signal exhaustion, a 'dark cloud cover' which may also signal exhaustion.
4. The printing of the aforementioned candles would suggest that the share due a pause/consolidation or minor pullback.
Monday 06 November 2023 06h30 Premium Perspective🔒 To unlock the stock, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Monday 06 November 2023 06h30 Resource Centre (Click On The Image To Enlarge)
Friday 03-November-2023, 13h15 Standard Deviation Screen:
1. Reinet Investments (RNI)
2. Shoprite Holdings (SHP)
3. Pepkor Holdings (PPH)
Friday 03-November-2023, 06h30 To me, one of the most important instruments in the world is the US 10-Year Bond Yield. Equity traders can create an advantage for themselves by actively monitoring the level of interest rates and bond yields in order to effective assess the reward-to-risk of the market environment. Update: The US 10-Year Bond Yield is lower by 20 basis points from Tuesday's comment that lower levels would be seen. This has supported the rally in stocks over the last two sessions. Clients who requested the following two charts, had access to my perspective below:
Friday 03-November-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen: SHORT TERM - 'Strong Attempt At A Bullish Reversal Following A Consolidation Phase': Stocks That Match: INL, N91, SHC
Friday 03-November-2023, 06h30 Shoprite Holdings (SHP, 25251c). Clients of Unum Capital enjoy the benefit of access and interaction with analysts, traders and portfolio managers to engage on various market issues. For SHP was a query on Friday 20 October, the share's momentum regime rating was "high bearish momentum/approaching oversold". This meant that although the share was in a downward trend, the possibility of minor rebounds remained. Subsequently, bullish reversal occurred during the following session, with upside follow-through from 23087c at the time to yesterday's high of 25383c. At current levels, SHP trades at more than 2x standard deviation over 50 days when viewed via it's linear regression channel.
Friday 03-November-2023, 06h30 Standard Deviation Screen: Below are a two names (SLM and TRU) which trade at the upper boundary of the 50 day standard deviation linear regression channels.
Friday 03-November-2023, 06h30 Clicks Group (CLS, 29147c). The share is higher by 22% from the buy/long signal as per the tactical trading Guide on end of day on Friday 20 October. As per the Tactical Trading Guide, the end of day SHORT TERM reading is as follows: "Would not enter a buy/long at current levels. The reward-to-risk is unattractive". Simultaneously, the share is trading at the upper boundary of it's 50-day 2 standard deviation linear regression channel, which supports my view that the reward-to-risk does NOT favour buyers of the share at current levels. The upward momentum is strong and there is a possibility that the share could trade higher on today (Friday), however failing to hold the prior session highs (using the high of day as a pivot) could open up a bearish reversal trade!
CLS Tactical Trading Guide as at end of day on Friday 20 October.
Friday 03-November-2023, 06h30 MTN. Medium Term Downside Targets Being Reached.
Chart #1: MTN Weekly. The share nearing the sub-R90 target from the bear flag discussed at 11448c on Monday 29 May. Original Chart Below.
Chart #2: MTN Weekly. Downside follow-through from the consolidation structure. Original Chart Below.
Chart #3: MTN Daily - downside follow-through from the SELL view close to R200 per share (R197) in March 2022. This was the medium term peak for MTN.
Reading this research but not a client of Unum Capital? Sign up today to obtain frequent access to high quality research insights. E-mail lester@unum.co.za
Friday 03-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close.
Friday 03-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Thursday 02-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Sector Ratings as at yesterday's close.
Thursday 02-November-2023, 06h30 Kumba Iron Ore (KIO, 49620c). On the watchlist. I highlighted the share as a buy at R398, from which we saw it trade up to R500. At current levels, R498-R500 is a resistance zone. The momentum is up, however, failing to retain R488-R490 could see a minor pullback unfold, targeting the rising 50-day EMA.
Thursday 02-November-2023, 06h30 KIO Buy Idea as highlighted to clients on Monday 11 September (Pre-Market).
Thursday 02-November-2023, 06h30 Standard Bank (SBK, 18239c). Within the large upward channel, my eye has recognized the development of a potential bear flag technical formation + the 50-day EMA is flat (starting to point lower). Breaching the lower boundary of the channel would open up a short/sell. The risk to the idea is that we could see strong basket buying in SA-focused shares which would nullify the idea. To mitigate this directional market upside risk, traders could consider a sector pair for e.g. Buy FSR vs Sell SBK.
Thursday 02-November-2023, 06h30 Truworths (TRU, 7598c). On Monday 23 October I pointed out the share trading at the lower boundary of it's 50-day linear regression channel from where traders could either, (1) reduce short positions, or (2) enter tactical buy/long positions for a minor rebound. The share has rallied from just above R69 to above R76 and is back to being overbought in the ultra short term. For active traders, failure to hold the prior session/range highs would suggest that an unwind from these levels is possible. Compared to last week's print at the weekly lows, the buy/long reward-to-risk is unappealing. Note: the price is nearing the upper boundary of the 50-day 2 standard deviation linear regression channel.
Thursday 02-November-2023, 06h30 Thungela Resource (TGA): The previously highlighted resistance level at R186-R190 held with the share retreating to a low of R163.62 during yesterday's session. As mentioned on Monday, the upward trending channel was at risk of being breached which occurred on Tuesday with a 5.15% decline. For now, the 50-day EMA is acting as a support level, which however the candle structure appears weak which may mean that the share could see a 'flush' to lower levels.
Thursday 02-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Thursday 02-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close.
Wednesday 01-November-2023, 08h37 JSE Strategy Screen: Short Term. "Aggressive buying but do not chase. Look for an overshoot to the upside or failure to hold the previous session range highs to short/sell back to the 8-EMA".
To unlock the stocks, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Wednesday 01-November-2023, 06h30 Deteriorating Candle Structure At Resistance. The R192 to R195 was flagged as potential resistance. We have since seen the share struggle to clear this range, with the candle structure starting to deteriorate. The recent range is made up of the following: long upper tails, doji's while yesterday a large bearish engulfing candle was printed by the close of trade. We could see an early session rebound however holding below 18950 could suggest further weakness and the start to a short term bearish reversal. To unlock the stock, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Wednesday 01-November-2023, 06h30 Potential Buy/Long Opportunity (Reversal Strategy).
5 Points To Note. To unlock the stock, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Wednesday 01-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close. What does this data highlight? Which phase a share may be in, for example 'oversold' or 'overbought'. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Wednesday 01-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Tuesday 31-October-2023, 11h16 US 10-Year Bond Yield Chart #1. To access this research note, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Tuesday 31-October-2023, 11h14 US 10-Year Bond Yield Chart #2. To access this research note, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Tuesday 31-October-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen. SHORT TERM: "Attempting a rebound following a downward trend. The share may stabilize further (consolidate) before continuing higher". To access the shares codes, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Tuesday 31-October-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen: Std Dev/Linear Regression. The share has unwound from a short term overbought range to a high bearish momentum while approaching oversold level. Two features: (1) Trading at the lower boundary of the 50-day standard deviation linear regression channel (2) approaching an unfilled gap which is in line with the 200-week moving average.
Tuesday 31-October-2023, 06h30 Truworths (Update). Last week Monday TRU was highlighted on this page within the Standard Deviation Screener. The share traded at the lower boundary of the 2 standard deviation linear regression channel which offered an opportunity to either (1) cover short/sell positions or (2) enter a buy/long position in anticipation of a short term rebound. The subsequently moved higher by 5.9% from 6917c to yesterday's high of 7331c. My view, presented on this page last is highlighted below.
Tuesday 31-October-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Tuesday 31-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close. What does this data highlight? Which phase a share may be in, for example 'oversold' or 'overbought'. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Monday 30-October-2023, 06h30 Analyst Thoughts: Key Points
On Friday, global equities closed at multi-month lows as bond yields hovered near multi-month highs.
Geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on sentiment.
Month-on-month inflation rose by 0.3% - the highest since May.
Consumer spending was higher than consensus expectations, income was lower than expected.
Earning's Seaosn: Underway, with mixed results across sectors. Amazon surging (+6.8%), Ford hammered (-12%), Solar stocks tanking.
JSE Top 40 Index at multi-month lows, with poor breadth confirming the move lower.
JSE Breadth: The majority of contituents reamin in the 'weak' category, with the second biggest categoy being the 'neutral' category.
JSE + Global: Further downside could see extreme ultra short term conditions develop, triggering potential bullish reversal opportunities.
Monday 30-October-2023, 06h30 US Market Breadth: Percentage of Shares Above Their 20-day Moving Averages
Monday 30-October-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Monday 30-October-2023, 06h30 Clicks Group. Upside Follow-Through. CLS is an example of an opportunity derived from the Tactical Trading Guide. The data alerted to a buy/long idea on __ with the end of day reading stating the following: "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a buy/long position". Subsequently, we saw the share advance by 13% from 23757c to Friday's high of 26890c. At current levels, the share trades at the upper boundary of it's 50-day 2 standard deviation linear regression channel where the buy/long reward-to-risk (from an entry perspective) has become somewhat unappealing following sharp short term advance.
Monday 30-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Sector Ratings Relative To The Top 40 Index, as at Friday's close. What does this data highlight? The status of a sector when compared to the broader market. This could assist a trader in either buying a sector that is showing relative strength or selling/avoiding a sector that is showing relative weakness. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Sunday 29-October-2023, 22h00 (Pre-Market Asia) Commodity Ratings (Selected Markets)
Monday 30-October-2023, 06h30 Standard Deviation Screen: The following share has unwound from overbought levels to now trade within an oversold zone. This coincides with the lower boundary of the 50-day standard deviation linear regression channel as well as near an horizontal level of support. Also noted is the development of a 'doji' candle formation, which may signal that the share is nearing the tail end of a downside move. This share is on my watchlist for a potential buy/long. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Monday 30-October-2023, 06h30 Coronation Fund Managers (CML). Have you zoomed out to consider the monthly chart? I'm looking it from this angle🔒
Monday 30-October-2023, 06h30 Thungela Resources (TGA). The previously highlighted resistance level at R186-R190 held with the share retreating to a low of R171. The price is remain with the upward channel however there is a risk of breaching the upward channel. Below is the the chart as of Friday's close, followed by another chart highlighting my short term view and next level to consider a re-entry.
Monday 30-October-2023, 06h30 Thungela Resources (TGA). Next best provisional buy zone🔒
Monday 30-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at Friday's close. What does this data highlight? Which phase a share may be in, for example 'oversold' or 'overbought'. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Friday 27-October-2023, 06h30 Pick n Pay (PIK). To access my view of the price chart and related commentary, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Friday 27-October-2023, 06h30 US JETS ETF: I added an offshore trade idea yesterday evening on the CMS at 20h53.
Friday 27-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close. To access this data, e-mail lester@unum.co.za
Thursday 26-October-2023, 12h41 Tactical Opportunities: Harmony Gold. One of the various strategies which a trader could follow is buying a pullback within an upward trend, at certain provisional, predetermined levels. A core principle that has served traders well is buying on a pullback to the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Harmony Gold, a share that I highlighted at it's recent lows, has been a consolidation phase near it's highs with some weakness on it's lower time frame. At yesterday's close, the medium term reading was as follows: "Consolidating within an upward trend. If the 8-EMA has been breached, use the 21-EMA as a potential buy range". Today, the share down with the lows of the day (8736c) being at the rising 21-EMA. Thus far, intraday, we have seen the price rising to a high of 9252c. The automated reading is timestamped below, as at yesterday's close, followed by the current chart. At the end of each day, I am extracting the Tactical Trading Guide, making it available to clients. To access, it visit the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide . To trade, gain frequent access to high quality insights or open a new account, get in touch today: lester@unum.co.za
Thursday 26-October-2023, 11h14 JSE Top 40 Index. Regime Snapshot
Thursday 26-October-2023, 10h51 Investec Ltd (INL). Bank/Take Profit on Short/Sell (Approaching target, only a few points away from it).
Thursday 26-October-2023, 10h24 Global Sentiment Index. Continues to trend lower.
Thursday 26-October-2023, 10h20 Exxaro Resources (EXX) & Thungela Resources (TGA). Both EXX and TGA have retreated from the previous highlighted overhead resistance zones of R192-R194 and R186 to R190, respectively. Both shares remain above their rising 50-day EMAs on both an absolute and relative basis and at current levels, the trade at the lower boundary of their 50-day 2 std deviation linear regression channels.
Thursday 26-October-2023, 06h30 Anglo American Plc (AGL, 47872c) Standard Deviation Screen. On Monday I discussed AGL with the comment being around the potential for a reclaim of the pivot (set as the prior session low) to support a bullish reversal trade. We saw the share trade lower intraday however close off the lows of the day. On Tuesday, we saw upside follow-through and on Wednesday, a consolidation within the prior day range. The new pivot for upside continuation is 48450c. The share screens as offering value on a short term standard deviation basis, with the rebound currently taking place off the lower boundary of the 50-day linear regression channel.
Thursday 26-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Banks (Equally-Weighted) Relative To JSE Top 40 Index. Pending Relative Underperformance? The following factors may support my technical inquiry:
Distance Divergence: The price is printing a higher high while the distance vs the 75-day EMA has developed a lower high.
Risks losing incline support
Thursday 26-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close.
Wednesday 25-October-2023, 10h20 Nedbank Group (NED, 19730c). Monthly Chart. The R200 level is one which I have highlighted in recent months as one to monitor for downside risk. This is a range that been supported by buyers for 19 months and is currently being breached. While this is well-known to market participants who keep a close eye on the share, the following additional points could provide further insight: (1) The 14-month RSI has shifted to below the 50 level. During previous cycles, crossed below the 50 level has been a negative technical development. At current levels, the 14-month RSI is at 47 (how will it close for the month? Let's monitor it.) (2) The MACD has developed a bearish cross with both the MACD 'Line' and 'Signal' gradually starting to turn lower. In the short term, oversold conditions may develop, opening up opportunities to buy for tactical rallies, however, market participants should keep the long term structure (monthly chart) in mind.
Wednesday 25-October-2023, 09h44 JSE Sector: Short Term Trend Ratings
Wednesday 25-October-2023, 08h39 Sappi (SAP, 4187c) Standard Deviation Screen. Notes on the chart.
Update: Sappi is lower by 9.5% since my note on 17 October, highlighting the potential for a pullback at resistance. The original chart is shown below.
Wednesday 25-October-2023, 06h30 Bid Corp (BID, 40966c). The share has traded in a well-defined range, with support (buying interest) at R400 and resistance (selling interest) at R435. It is unknown whether the share will hold the R400 level, however, the following is observed: (1) the share has shifted below it's 50-day exponential moving average. The 50-day EMA has also started to turn lower (2) The 3-Day MACD is above the centre line however has a negative alignment (MACD in blue is below the Signal line in orange). Also noted on the MACD is the MACD line looking to cross below the centre line for the first time this year. The last interaction with the centre line was a bullish crossover in late November 2022. One scenario is that the share could rally into the declining 50-day EMA which could act as a resistance zone/selling area. A breach and close below the R400 level could open R386 and R373.
Wednesday 25-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Sector Ratings Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index, as at Friday's close.
Wednesday 25-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close.
Tuesday 24-October-2023, 12h38 Bidvest Group (BVT). Key Points: (1) Bear flag breakdown (2) short term support of 26300c breached (3) horizontal supply zone of 27200c has been a feature, with the price being rejected off this zone on 3 occasions (4) breach of the 50-day EMA, which is gradually starting to turn lower. The idea would be to sell rallies into R263-265.
Tuesday 24-October-2023, 09h50 JSE Top 40 Index. Flash Comment: (1) During yesterdays session, the index traded close to it's 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area where it found minor support to close off the lows of the day. More broadly (over the medium term), the index remains below the previous support zone and is trading within a downward trending channel. Yesterday's 7-day RSI was 23, a rare index print, suggesting high bearish momentum/approaching oversold and the potential for a relief rebound before potential continuing it's downward trend. As of this morning at 09:50, the 7day RSI has turned up to 28 (subject to change as the price action develops).
Tuesday 24-October-2023, 09h22 FX: USD/JPY. 5 Technical Points To Note For Short term Traders: Developing a rising wedge (bearish) technical formation (2) trading and showing minor weakness at prior swing (3) Has developed a distance divergence where the price had printed a higher high while the distance vs the 50/100-EMA spread has printed a lower high. (4) The RSI is at 55 (a bullish regime) however it is also showing signs of weakening momentum. (5) Poor candle structure yesterday and even more so thus far today. One of the risks for shorts/sellers is potential intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) which could lead to an increase in volatility.
Tuesday 24-October-2023, 09h06 Wheat Futures. The commodity is trading at the lower boundary of a larger, medium term channel while looking to break out of a short term channel. The swing buy/long trigger level is above 600. The Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) can also be used as a trading vehicle.
Tuesday 24-October-2023, 06h30 Tiger Brands and Textainer Group. Automated tools and strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. By clicking here, you will be directed to the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which provides automated analysis for over 70 shares across 3 time frames. This tool is also available via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action.
Tiger Brands (TBS). At the end of day of 04 October, the reading was as follows: "Reward-to-risk becoming attractive for a small buy/long position". The share developed a sharp reversal, with a move from the close of 14332c to a last Friday's swing high of 17639c. The alert (timestamped) and chart is below. Keen to capitalize on these trading opportunities? Get in touch today.
Textainer Group (TXT). It also caught my attention that the automated data alerted to a buy, with the reading as follows at the end of day of 04 October: "Aggressive selling recently but long reward-to-risk may be attractive". The share traded lower over the next few session, with a sharp reversal during Monday's trading session as the group reported it's intention to delist following a takeover bid. The share closed higher by 41% on Monday, with a print of R935 vs the signal price of R688. The alert (timestamped) and chart is below. Keen to capitalize on these trading opportunities? Get in touch today.
Tuesday 24-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close.
Tuesday 24-October-2023, 06h30 German DAX Index. The downside target of 14660 was reached during yesterday's trading. Now lower by 1000 points.
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 Analyst Thoughts: Key Points To Note:
On Friday, South African equities, by way of the JSE Top 40 Index closed at it's lowest level since August 2022, down by 3.52% year-to-date however +9.1% over one year. Over 3 months, the index is down by 10% while having shedding 11.8% over 6 months.
Other global market also at multi-month lows, with the major drivers as follows (1) the tightening of monetary policy (higher bond yields + hawkish commentary from the US Federal Reserve (2) geopolitical tensions (3) concerns around the medium impact of higher interest rates on the global economy.
On the JSE, Market Breadth remains poor, with most constituents in the mid and large cap space trading with in a WEAK short term regime followed by second largest category being HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM/APPROACHING OVERSOLD.
Sector With Continued To Show Relative Weakness: Diversified Miners; Platinum Miners
Sector That Have Led, But Are Starting To Display Signs Of Slowing Upward Momentum: Coal Miners
Sector That Are Overbought In The Short Term: Gold Miners
Sector That Are Potentially Finding A Base/(Small Signs of Buying): Telecommunications; Luxury Goods (*)
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as at Friday's close.
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings (Summary), as at Friday's close.
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 US 10-Year Bond Yield (US10Y). Multiple Time Frame Trends and Ratings, as at Friday's close.
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 S&P 500 (SPY ETF). Multiple Time Frame Trends and Ratings, as at Friday's close.
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 US Relative Sector Ratings, as at Friday's close. EW = Equally Weighted.
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 Kumba Iron Ore (KIO, 47715c). Strong Trend, But At Resistance. I shared my view of a buy/long opportunity at 39800c in early September. Last week, the share trade higher by R100 to test a high of 49800c, which is also the upper boundary of the resistance zone. Friday's price action was negative (-3.36%) - in line with the broader market which also traded lower. The 21/50-EMA is trending up which gives the share a slightly bullish bias. At current levels, considering the strong short term trend, the reward-to-risk is unappealing however, traders should be looking for some support on the 21/50-EMA, which may provide a re-entry.
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 Absa Group (ABG)
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 Global Copper Miners (COPX) breaking down (showing relative weakness) versus the All Country World Equity Index (ex-US). This chart is highly relevant in terms of our own mining shares on the JSE.
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 Glencore Plc (GLN, c) is a chart that I have highlighted in recent months, showing ~R104,35 as being a risk level., while R110 has been a major supply zone. Poor candle structure has been a feature. Avoid for now.
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 Anglo American Plc (AGL, 47591c). For ultra short term/active traders. AGL is one of several shares that have sold off in recent sessions and are approaching ultra short term oversold. Specifically, the share has declined from around R534 to a low of R472.12. Here, it is possible that we could see further (for e.g. 1-2 days) however traders should be alert to the potential for an ultra short term reversal. This could be signaled by the development of a candle formation such as a 'hammer', 'pin bar', 'doji' or 'piercing candle'. The current pivot will be the low of the last candle (i.e. R472.12) and if the price continues to trend down, then a new pivot will be determined.
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 Sanlam (SLM, 6547c). The share reached my previous short/sell target, which was followed by a rebound. Currently at risk of breaching it's incline support.
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 Standard Deviation Screen
Standard Deviation is the statistical measure of market volatility, measuring how widely prices are dispersed from the average price.
For short term, active traders, the 2 Standard Deviation, 50-Day Linear Regression Channel provides a systematic approach to managing risk and uncovering potential opportunities.
By recognizing the position of the price relative to the trend channel, a trader is able to assess the reward-to-risk which can also help in determining the following, among others:
Potential Entry Range
Potential Exit Range
Current Trend
This along with the other factors such as support, resistance, moving averages, rating (overbought, oversold etc.) helps to reduce the inherent bias which may accompany a trader.
Each chart is present with a 2 Standard Deviation, 50-Day Linear Regression Trend Channel which appears as follows and which may be trending upward, downward or sideways:
Monday 23-October-2023, 06h30 Standard Deviation Screen: Truworths (TRU).
Sunday 22-October-2023, 22h00 (Pre-Market Asia) Standard Deviation Screen: Gold
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as at yesterday's close.
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Technical Ratings (Summary), as at yesterday's close.
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Top 40 Index (J200. Last Close: 65319). For bulls, reclaiming 67081 would support a bullish reversal. For now, the bias is lower as the index trades below a declining 50/100-day EMA cloud and within a downward trending channel.
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 Richemont (CFR, 224815c). Trading at a key level + Early Signs Of Stabilization And Potential Recovery? My view is that diagonal trend lines are LESS reliable that horizontal trend lines, however, here is a view to consider. The share is trading at the lower boundary of a multi-year channel which extends back to the lows of March 2020 and may be showing signs of strength with positive candle structure during yesterday and today's session. Also noted is the minor divergence on the 14-day RSI, which may suggest that downside momentum is slowing.
Referring to my comment on 02 October 2023: "Richemont Relative To Top 40 Index. Upper Panel= CFR vs Top 40 Index. Lower Panel = 63-Day (Quarterly) Drawdown. The current drawdown is one of the largest we have seen over the past decade."
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 BHG Group (BHG, 53602c). Consolidating below it's 200-day SMA / Lower highs / Risk of breach of incline support.
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 Aspen Pharmacare (APN, 16614c). Updated Technical View. The share has returned toward the middle of a 1-year gradually upward trending channel. Short Term Trend = Weak. Also Noted: (1) The incline support extending back to the swing lows of 29 December has been breached. (2) The 200-day moving average is being breached. Target = below R155 if incline is breached with conviction.
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 Sasol Ltd (SOL, 25564c). I believe that making use of Standard Deviation/Linear Regression channels can add value to an active trader. To refresh, Standard Deviation is the statistical measure of market volatility, measuring how widely prices are dispersed from the average price. Most recently, SOL trading at the lower boundary of the 21-day and 50-day channels. At the time, this was highlighted as follows:
We have since seen Sasol rally, hitting an ultra short term overbought level which was in line with the multi-month supply zone (red shaded area).
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 Spar Group (SPP, 10799c). Update. The share has unwound into the target zone of R106 to R109 (low of 10694c during yesterday's session).
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 Reinet Investments (RNI, 38595c). Lowest Level Since April + Head & Shoulder Technical Formation. The share exceeded my previous short/sell target of R398 (reaching a low of R386) which was followed by a rebound and subsequently, another decline which saw the price trade at it's lowest level since April. In the short term, a rebound is possible, however a new primary bearish trend may be developing following the medium to long term overbought conditions which was seen earlier in this year. Head and Shoulder Measured target = R340.
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 Consumer Staples Relative To The Top 40 Index. The high bearish momentum has continued + has shifted to below it's 200-day SMA. On 30 August I discussed the sector being potentially vulnerable to some relative underperformance vs the broader market. It has since UNDERPERFORMED by close to 15%!
The above chart is a follow-up of the original view, below:
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 Consumer Discretionary Relative To The Top 40 Index. Lower highs = Descending triangle. Bias = Bearish.
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 Mondi Plc (MNP, 28998c). Previous I published a note on MNP at R312, with a target of R338. We saw the share trade as high R331.34 where it entered an overbought position. Subsequently, the share started to unwind, and on the back of it's market update, the share continued to sell off, trading as low as 28525c during yesterday's session. Whilst it is weak, traders want to keep the name on the radar for a tactical buying opportunity. I am monitoring.
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 Sappi Ltd (SAP, 4298c). On the back of Mondi being sold off, Sappi retraced sharply, in line with my view on Tuesday morning (17-October).
Friday 20-October-2023, 06h30 DAX Index (15045). The negative crossover over the 3-day MACD as well as the development of the multi-month top formation were the key reasons behind the view that the index is shifting to a bearish trend. We have since seen the price attempt a reclaim of the breakdown level, followed by a rejection of the level. Supporting the downside view is the price being rejection at, and trading below a declining 50-day moving average.
Thursday 19-October-2023, 06h30 Home Depot (HD, $290.24). Consolidating below a declining 200-day SMA + potential break of structure. Bias = Bearish/Sell. Targets = $266 and $250.
Thursday 19-October-2023, 06h30 Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY, $66.25). Multi-month base. A break and close above $68 opens up $76 as a target.
Thursday 19-October-2023, 06h30 Barloworld (BAW, c). The share has been trading in a relative narrow consolidation range where resistance is ~R93 and a support is R81. Lower highs have been a feature of the price structure with the price having rebounded off the aforementioned R81 support zone. It should be noted that the share is trading below a declining 200-day SMA while a breach of the R80 support level opens medium term downside toward R71 and R65.
Thursday 19-October-2023, 06h30 Truworths (TRU, c). Update. Full target exceeded on the short/sell trade idea from 7647c (target 7011c). Yesterday's low = 6832c. Bank/Take Profit. Chart as at yesterday's close.
Thursday 19-October-2023, 06h30 Pick n Pay (PIK, 2597c). Full technical target reached. In May I discussed two downside targets on the share: 3490c and 2517c. Yesterday, the final downside target was reached, with with the share reaching a low of 2517c on the back of it's interim results.
Pick n Pay (PIK, 2597c). Continued Commentary: In July of 2022 I published a SHORT/SELL at 5701c. We saw the share trade slightly higher over the next few months however the price has declined significantly (-55%) over the 15 months. To trade or open a new account, contact me via e-mail: lester@unum.co.za
Thursday 19-October-2023, 06h30 JSE Technical Summary as at yesterday's close.
Thursday 19-October-2023, 06h30 Relative Sector Ratings as at yesterday's close.
Tuesday 17-October-2023, 08h18 Bid Corp (BID, 41617c). How long will the share be able to continue holding around and rebound off it's 50-day EMA? Bearish candle structure + testing support with a bearish candle structure (bearish engulfing candle). The current key resistance level = ~43500c.
Tuesday 17-October-2023, 07h53 Sappi (SAP, 4627c). Over a 2-day period, the share has shifted one level lower, from high bullish momentum to strong. This possibly reflects a slowdown in upward momentum. Also over a 3-day period, sellers have controlled the range between 4685c and 4937c. It's possible that the share develops a minor pullback, potentially into the rising 8 and 21-EMA range before continuing it's trend higher.
Tuesday 17-October-2023, 06h30 Regimes of Major Sectors Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index.
Line Up (Toward Red Zone) = Strengthening + Approaching Eventual Sell.
Line Down (Toward Blue Zone) = Weakening + Approaching Eventual Buy.
Tuesday 17-October-2023, 06h30 Standard Deviation Screen
Standard Deviation is the statistical measure of market volatility, measuring how widely prices are dispersed from the average price.
For short term, active traders, the 2 Standard Deviation, 50-Day Linear Regression Channel provides a systematic approach to managing risk and uncovering potential opportunities.
By recognizing the position of the price relative to the trend channel, a trader is able to assess the reward-to-risk which can also help in determining the following, among others:
Potential Entry Range
Potential Exit Range
Current Trend
This along with the other factors such as support, resistance, moving averages, rating (overbought, oversold etc.) helps to reduce the inherent bias which may accompany a trader.
Each chart is present with a 2 Standard Deviation, 50-Day Linear Regression Trend Channel which appears as follows and which may be trending upward, downward or sideways:
Tuesday 17-October-2023, 06h30 Standard Deviation Screen: High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold - Discovery Holdings (DSY). In addition, at multi-month support + trading into a flat 200-WEEK SMA. The daily chart is shown below.
Tuesday 17-October-2023, 06h30 Standard Deviation Screen: High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought - Exxaro Resources (EXX)
