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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst Thoughts: EUR/USD - A Bigger Picture

SEEMS THAT A LARGER W,X,Y BULL PHASE IS UNFOLDING


  • Long-term view: The illustrated W,X,Y bull phase is potentially a correction that should be completed around R2.

  • The cyclical bear trend is bound to re-emerge off R3 to S3 and new lows, as illustrated.

  • Medium term: The PQ pattern (symmetrical triangle) has been adjusted to illustrate the possibility of an incomplete triangle, rather than a flat pattern.

  • Further D and E ranging phases will confirm this outcome and be followed by the 1,2,3,4,5 bear trend.

  • Phase X points to a general sideways outcome between R1* and S0 for the better part of 2024.

  • The lack of interim trending moves corroborates the triangle alternative.

  • Important levels: R1* is important for the immediate view of limited gains.

  • A break of S1 will activate the large bear trend.

  • Conviction levels: Medium to high on general outlook.

  





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