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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst thoughts: EUR/USD Long-term


  • The long-term P*Z* wedge pattern seems incomplete with further possible overlapping A,B,C and W,X,Y phases, as illustrated.

  • The A,B,C bull phase off S1 has completed the expected B phase within the R1/S0 range. Phase C should now target line P*.

  • Potential for a bearish reversal at P* will activate the final W,X,Y downside to Z*/S1 cluster support.

  • A long-term bottom around Z* is expected to initiate a multi-year impulsive bull trend to R3 and R4.

  • Any definite break of P* will signal the end of the P,Z bear phase and activate the bull trend to R3/R4.

Target and Re-assessment Levels:

Negation Levels: P* and Z*

Primary Trend and Target Levels: Overlapping downside to S1/Z, followed by gains to R3/R4

Prevailing Trend and Target Levels: Gains to P*

Technical Rating: Medium to high

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