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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst thoughts: EUR/USD Medium-term


  • The general view of a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 bull trend to R2/R3 on completion of the LQ consolidation is retained.

  • The expectation of phase C downside within the F*K parameters to S0/S1*/Q cluster support is nearing the indicated target area.

  • Confirmation of a maturing F*K trend is found in a somewhat oversold and diverging RSI (line D), as well as corrective price action within the F*K lines.

  • The current bear trend will remain valid until a definite breach of F*.

  • It is important that the market remains above S1* for the illustrated outlook to remain valid.

  • A sharp breakthrough R0* will confirm the end of the corrective phase 2 with further upside scope.

  • Alternative: The depth of the phase 2 correction suggests that the bull phase could remain overlapping and within the LQ parameters as a likely alternative.

Target and Re-assessment Levels:

Important Levels: R0* and S1*

Primary Trend and Target Levels: Gains off Q/S1* to R3

Monthly Range: R0/S1*

Prevailing Trend and Target Levels: Ongoing downside to Q

Technical Rating: Medium

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