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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst thoughts: S&P500 Medium-term

VIEW RETAINED: A BEARISH CORRECTION TOWARDS 4310 SEEMS IMMINENT.

  • The medium-term view of a bull trend to R1, followed by a bearish reversal to S0*, is materialising and the illustrated outcome is retained.

  • The downside towards S0* would probably be a phase 4 correction within the larger bull trend to R2.

  • The recent PQ-defined price action has been overlapping, confirming the phase 4 corrective outlook.

  • S0* is a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the preceding trend and also coincides with the previous bottom and longer-term top in August 2022. An exact test off S0* is, however not required and any meaningful correction will suffice as phase 4.

  • Further eventual gains to R2 and beyond is likely upon completion of the current correction.

  • S0* is pivotal for the overall illustrated bullish bias. A break below this level will neutralise the longer-term upside potential. Breaking above R0* will terminate the bearish correction.

  • Conviction: Medium to high.


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