Analyst thoughts: S&P500 Medium-term
VIEW RETAINED: A BEARISH CORRECTION TOWARDS 4310 SEEMS IMMINENT.
The medium-term view of a bull trend to R1, followed by a bearish reversal to S0*, is materialising and the illustrated outcome is retained.
The downside towards S0* would probably be a phase 4 correction within the larger bull trend to R2.
The recent PQ-defined price action has been overlapping, confirming the phase 4 corrective outlook.
S0* is a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the preceding trend and also coincides with the previous bottom and longer-term top in August 2022. An exact test off S0* is, however not required and any meaningful correction will suffice as phase 4.
Further eventual gains to R2 and beyond is likely upon completion of the current correction.
S0* is pivotal for the overall illustrated bullish bias. A break below this level will neutralise the longer-term upside potential. Breaking above R0* will terminate the bearish correction.
Conviction: Medium to high.