Analyst Thoughts: S&P500 Medium-term
THE VIEW HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL PERSISTENT VOLATILE RANGING CONDITIONS.
The expectation of a PQ bearish flag pattern has materialised. The overlapping price action confirms the corrective nature of this formation.
The recent phase A upside off SA1* has been sharp and impulsive, further validating the completion of the PQ correction.
There are, however, signals that point to R2* as being at the top of the overall bull trend:
PQ downside overlaps with the previous highs (H), neutralising an extended bull trend to new highs.
PQ has been quite large when compared to the previous LM correction.
View: The resulting stance is for corrective A,B,C type gains to R1, as part of A, B, C, D, E wide-ranging conditions between R2* and SA1*.
Important levels: R2* and SA1* are pivotal for the ranging view.
Conviction: Medium on the general outlook and speculative on the consolidation detail.