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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst Thoughts: S&P500 Medium-term

THE VIEW HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL PERSISTENT VOLATILE RANGING CONDITIONS.

  • The expectation of a PQ bearish flag pattern has materialised. The overlapping price action confirms the corrective nature of this formation.

  • The recent phase A upside off SA1* has been sharp and impulsive, further validating the completion of the PQ correction.

  • There are, however, signals that point to R2* as being at the top of the overall bull trend:

  1. PQ downside overlaps with the previous highs (H), neutralising an extended bull trend to new highs.

  2. PQ has been quite large when compared to the previous LM correction.

  • View: The resulting stance is for corrective A,B,C type gains to R1, as part of A, B, C, D, E wide-ranging conditions between R2* and SA1*.

  • Important levels: R2* and SA1* are pivotal for the ranging view.

  • Conviction: Medium on the general outlook and speculative on the consolidation detail.



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