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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst Thoughts: US 10-year Bond - Long Term

VIEW RETAINED FOR A BULL PHASE THAT IS MATERIALISING.


  • The long-held view of an impulsive 1,2,3,4,5 bear to T1/T2, followed by a meaningful downside to S2, is materialising.

  • The W,X,Y-type bull phase is closing in on the initial S1 level to complete phase W.

  • An R0*/S1 consolidation phase will follow to form phase X. The Final downside to S2 should complete the bull trend.

  • A longer-term base is expected to contain market action between R0* and S2, as highlighted by the shaded area. 

  • The cyclical bear trend to new highs will only re–emerge on completion of the current base building.

  • Conviction is medium to high.

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is often seen as a barometer of the overall health of the US economy. A rising yield can indicate expectations of stronger economic growth and potential inflation, while a falling yield might suggest economic slowdown or deflationary pressures. 





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