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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst thoughts: USD/ZAR Medium-term

VIEW RETAINED: THE TARGET OF 17.42 HAS BEEN SUCCESSFULLY REACHED.

  • The general view of an A,B,C type correction to S1 has materialiSed and been validated. Recent price action has, however not yet confirmed a medium-term bullish reversal

  • Bullish price action has not been able decisively breach the pivotal R0* level.

  • Residual bearish sentiment could result in overlapping PQ-type downside to S1 and even Q*, before a medium-term bottom is established.

  • The pair is in an interim neutral phase after reaching targets and the illustrated preferred outlook is thus of medium to low conviction.

  • R0* and Q* are now the important levels. A breach of R0* will activate the 1,2,3,4,5 gains.

Targets:

  • S1 is the previous consolidation bottom.

  • S2* is important where A= C in length is a common technical extension target.

  • A breach of S2* will extend the downside to S3.

  • Breaking above R1* will negate the current view.

Target and Re-assessment Levels:

View Negated: R1* and Q*

Primary Trend and Target Levels: PQ downside, followed by gains to R1 and R2

Current Trend and Target Levels: Downside towards S1

Monthly Range: R0*/Q*

Technical Rating: Neutral


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