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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst thoughts: USD/ZAR Medium-term

VIEW RETAINED: BULL AND BEAR TARGETS REACHED AND THE PRICE ACTION SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING INTO A CONSOLIDATION PHASE

  • The A,B,C correction stance to S3, as well as the ensuing bull trend to R1, has materialised.

  • The expected downside off R1 to S0 is probably phase 4 of the incomplete 12345 bull trend to R2*.

  • An R2*/S1** corrective period (W,X,Y illustrated) could develop on completion of the upside to R2*.

  • If S1** holds during the indicated corrections then a very bullish scenario (grey illustrated i ii iii iv v ) to new highs becomes the preferred longer-term scenario.

  • SA1** is crucial for the illustrated view. A possible break of this level will result in a more sideways consolidation between R2 and S3.

Target and Re-assessment Levels:

Important Levels: R2* and S1**

Primary Trend and Target Levels: R2 and S1** consolidation, followed by a bull trend to R3.

Monthly Range: R2/S1**

Current Trend and Target Levels: R1/S0 ranging

Technical Rating: Medium (low on the grey illustration)


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