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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst thoughts: USD/ZAR Medium-term


  • The expectation of a 1,2,3,4,5 impulsive bull trend off S3 to RA1* is materialising* and in a mature stage.

  • The fifth and final phase of the gains should target RA1* before a meaningful W,X,Y correction to S1 and S2* can develop.

  • Recent price action has allowed for a more specific RA1* target range as cluster resistance.

  • It is possible that the current upside could become overlapping, similar to the PQ bottoming.

  • If S2* holds over time then a very bullish outcome (grey illustrated i, ii, iii, iv, v) to new highs become the preferred longer-term scenario.

Target and Re-assessment Levels:

Important Levels: RA1* and S2*

Primary Trend: RA1*/S1 consolidation, followed by a bull trend to R3

Monthly Range: RA1*/S1

Current Trend and Target Levels: Gains to RA1*

Technical Rating: Medium

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