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  • Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst Thoughts - USD/ZAR Medium-Term


  • The RS pattern is advancing and appears to be entering its final downward stage, marked as Phase E. It is anticipated that the completion of this triangle pattern will initiate a strong upward trend toward Target 1 (T1) and potentially further.

  • There is an interim expectation for a consolidation phase around the R1/S1 levels, which is now emerging as an overlapping LM flag pattern. As a result, the R1 level has been revised to reflect this development.

  • The concluding downward movement towards a cluster support, ranging between (S-18.29) and the second support level (S2*), is expected to finalize the R/S triangle pattern.

  • Alternatively, should the price break below the critical S2* level, it would invalidate the current triangular pattern hypothesis, indicating instead that a more extended R3/S3 corrective phase is underway.


Target and Reassessment Levels:

Important Levels: S2* - 18.12

Primary Trend: RS Triangle pattern consolidation, followed by a bull trend to 20.90 and beyond.

Current Trend: 18.29 to 19.33 defined bullish correction

Monthly Range: 18.55 to 19.33

Technical Rating: Medium

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