AngloGold Ashanti Plc

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

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Analyst Disclosure: The analysis below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the analyst's own data.

Current Phase: 🔴 Tactical Reset / Support Search

Next Best-Probability Phase: 🟡 Volatility Compression / Mean Reversion Attempt

Tactical Risk Assessment: Integrated Confluence

• Buying & Long Positions

  • Risk for New Buy Entries: Falling Knife / Confluence Gap. You are initiating an entry where the Mid Term (Daily) momentum is currently NEUTRAL and trending lower. The primary risk is a "Laggard" flush toward the 140,000c structural support before a durable floor is established, as the Tactical Momentum (Weekly) has already entered the OVERSOLD zone.

  • Risk for Existing Long Positions: Capital Erosion. The breakdown from the 180,000c structural pivot has turned that former floor into a heavy ceiling. Failure to defend the immediate liquidity near 150,000c risks a complete re-rating toward the Core Baseline (Monthly) anchor near 120,000c.

  • What Can Change? A definitive daily reversal candle with a long lower wick at the current 155,143c level, followed by a hook in the Fast Weekly momentum, would signal institutional absorption.

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  Selling & Short Positions

  • Risk for New Short Entries: Extreme Mean Reversion. You are shorting a daily tape where price is already well below the recent peak and Tactical Momentum (Weekly) is OVERSOLD. The risk of a violent "oversold snapback" to reset tactical oscillators is high, potentially squeezing shorts back toward the 170,000c level.

  • Risk for Existing Short Positions: Profit Retention. Existing shorts are well-rewarded by the vertical drop from 200,000c. The risk is overstaying the move as Tactical Momentum (Weekly) hits terminal lows, where professional desks typically take heavy partial profits.

  • What Can Change? If the Mid Term (Daily) momentum accelerates into HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM, it confirms the markdown has moved from "orderly" to "capitulation," lowering the risk of a sharp bounce.

Timeframe Confluence & Forecasting (WCL Model)

• 1-Month Forecast (🔴 Bearish/🟡 Neutral): Driven by 60% Daily / 30% Weekly / 10% Monthly. Daily oscillators are trending lower. We project a volatile attempt at base-building over the next 30 days, likely ranging between 145,000c and 165,000c as the market digests the recent crash.

• 3-Month Forecast (🟡 Neutral): Driven by 20% Daily / 50% Weekly / 30% Monthly. The Structural Trend (Weekly) is currently in a markdown. We project a challenging period of "repair" where the asset grinds sideways to work off structural damage.

• 6-Month Forecast (🟢 Bullish): Driven by 10% Daily / 20% Weekly / 70% Monthly. The Secular Cycle (Monthly) remains in a dominant long-term uptrend. We project price stabilization six months out as the Core Baseline provides macro-structural support.

Momentum Profile: Integrated Confluence

• Monthly (Secular Regime): STRONG. The Secular Cycle is retreating from extreme overbought levels but remains firmly above the neutral midline. This confirms the long-term bull market is intact but undergoing a "Primary Shakeout".

• Weekly (Structural Trend): OVERSOLD. Tactical Momentum (Weekly) and Fast Weekly oscillators have collapsed into the oversold threshold. This indicates that institutional "sell algorithms" have likely reached a point of temporary exhaustion.

• Daily (Tactical Speed): NEUTRAL. The Mid Term momentum is currently traversing the neutral range. It has not reached terminal oversold levels yet, suggesting the tactical reset has further room to run before a durable bounce becomes highly probable.

• Synthesis: Extreme structural fear is currently meeting secular strength. The markdown is vertical and "stretched," favoring a period of volatility compression and relief.

Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias

Evaluating the broader macro context, ANG is currently trading at 155,143c. It has definitively broken the primary 180,000c support shelf, which now acts as the dominant resistance ceiling. The tape is seeking a higher-low base relative to the 2024 structural floor. Given the terminal oversold state of the Weekly frame, the tactical bias is 🔴 Tactical Reset / Support Search.

Key Support & Resistance Levels:

• Resistance: 180,000c (Structural Breakdown Shelf / COP).

• Support: 145,000c (Psychological / Local Pivot).

• Macro Floor: 120,000c (Core Baseline Anchor).

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Please Note: This research/analysis may NOT reflect the entire view on the instrument discussed. Other technical valuation models may include: Momentum Analysis, the Price Action Model, Momentum Matrix, Slope Analysis & Relative Analysis among others.

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READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS

For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital.

The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include:

• Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes

• Momentum indicators

• Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance

• Candle structure

• Moving averages and standard deviation

Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

• It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

• The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

• Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

• Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

• Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

• Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

• Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

• Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

• Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

• Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

• Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

• Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

• Whether a share lacks directional bias.

• The data set is available in real-time (on request)

• The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital