Richemont: Consolidating Within An Upward Trend. Multi-Time Frame Views

Lester Davids
13 minutes ago
3 min read

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tr adingdesk@unum.co.za

Richemont rallied 32% from our buy re-entry trigger, retraced, and is now consolidating. This is an update on the current structure:

The stock is in a confirmed daily uptrend, currently undergoing a routine consolidation.

Current Price Action Model:

Technical Take Based on Price Action Model

Analysis Based on Weekly Momentum Readings

Essential Takeaways: Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA

Structural Bullishness: The most significant development is in the Base Term (14-Day) trend, which has solidified its position in the "Strong" tier (currently 59.45). This confirms that the underlying demand structure is robust and capable of supporting the current elevated price levels.
Healthy Consolidation: After a strong run-up to recent highs, the stock is taking a breather. The Ultra Short Term (2-Day) momentum has hooked down sharply into the "Neutral" zone. This is a classic "cooling off" phase that relieves immediate overbought conditions without damaging the primary trend.
Trend Alignment: Despite the short-term pullback, three out of the four momentum timeframes (Short, Mid, and Base) remain firmly in the "Strong" tier. This broad agreement suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside once this brief selling wave subsides.
Support Defense: The price action is currently testing the 360,000c level. The ability of buyers to step in here and prevent a deeper slide is a testament to the market's confidence in the longer-term luxury recovery theme.
Potential Reload: The "reset" of the fast-twitch indicators while the slower structural indicators remain strong typically creates a high-probability setup for trend continuation. The market is effectively "reloading" energy for the next attempt at the 370,000c resistance.
Key Risks: Momentum Drag: If the Ultra Short Term weakness persists and drags the Short Term (3-Day) indicator below the 60 level (out of "Strong" and into "Neutral"), it could trigger a deeper cascade of profit-taking, forcing a test of lower support levels.
Alternative Scenario: Sideways Drift: If the price fails to bounce immediately but holds above 350,000c, we could see a period of range-bound trading. In this scenario, the momentum indicators would likely converge in the "Neutral" zone before a new directional move is decided.

Core Thesis Richemont is in a "buy the dip" regime. The primary trend structure is bullish, evidenced by the strength in the Mid and Base term indicators. The current weakness is viewed as a tactical pullback within a strategic uptrend. The thesis anticipates a resumption of buying pressure once the fast momentum indicators stabilize, targeting a breakout above recent highs.

Comprehensive Summary The momentum profile is constructive. The divergence between the correcting fast indicators and the resilient slow indicators is a healthy sign of a trending market. It indicates that short-term traders are taking profits while long-term investors are holding firm. This "passing of the baton" often precedes a renewed leg higher, provided key support levels are respected.

Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis The Ultra Short Term trend is NEUTRAL and sloping Sharply Downwards, reflecting the immediate cooling of price action. The Short Term trend is STRONG and sloping Downwards, showing that the 3-day swing momentum is fading but remains positive. The Mid Term trend is STRONG and sloping Flat/Down, indicating stabilizing intermediate demand. The Base Term trend is STRONG and sloping Gently Upwards, confirming the long-term trend is healthy and growing.

Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) The stock is consolidating recent gains. Bullish Continuation: A daily close above the recent high of 365,000c would signal that the correction is over and clear the path for a retest of 370,000c. Bearish Reversal Risk: A sustained close below the breakout level of 350,000c would damage the technical structure and likely see the stock fall back into its previous trading range.

Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance is at the recent local high around 370,000c. Immediate Support is the current level near 360,000c. Critical Structural Support is the major breakout zone at 350,000c. A loss of 350,000c would shift the bias to neutral/bearish.