Commodity Analysis

Trade Commodities with Unum Capital.

To get started, email lester@unum.co.za

Understanding the Legend (Implied):

Based on the table's color coding, we can infer a general legend:

• Blue: Strong/Positive (Buy Signal)

• Yellow: Neutral (Hold or Watch)

• Red: Weak/Negative (Sell Signal)

Summary for the Group

• Energy (Brent Crude Oil): Strong bearish sentiment across all timeframes. A clear sell signal.

• Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium): A mixed picture. Gold shows potential for a short-term rally but is overbought in the longer term. Silver, Platinum, and Palladium are facing significant short-term bearish momentum, suggesting sell signals.

• Industrial Metals (Copper): Similar to Silver, Copper shows long-term strength but is experiencing strong short-term bearish momentum. A sell signal is indicated.

Data as of Thursday 03 April 2025 at 21h50

1. Brent Crude Oil:

• Long Term: Weak (Red)

• Medium Term: Weak (Red)

• Short Term: Weak (Red)

Analysis: Across all timeframes, Brent Crude Oil exhibits weakness. The short-term weakness carries the most weight, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Recommendation: Strong Sell signal. All indicators point towards a continued downtrend.

2. Gold:

• Long Term: Overbought (Red)

• Medium Term: Overbought (Red)

• Short Term: Strong (Blue)

Analysis: While the long and medium terms suggest overbought conditions (potentially indicating a pullback), the short term shows strong momentum. The short-term strength, being the most significant, needs careful consideration.

Recommendation: Hold/Cautious Buy. The short-term strength might indicate a temporary rally, but the overbought conditions in longer timeframes suggest potential for a reversal. Monitor closely for signs of a pullback and consider taking profits if you're already long.

3. Silver:

• Long Term: Strong (Blue)

• Medium Term: Neutral (Yellow)

• Short Term: High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold (Red)

Analysis: The long-term strength is countered by a neutral medium term and strong bearish momentum in the short term, nearing oversold levels. The short-term bearishness, being the most influential, is concerning.

Recommendation: Sell/Avoid. The strong short-term bearish momentum outweighs the long-term strength. While oversold conditions might suggest a potential bounce, the overall trend is negative.

4. Copper:

• Long Term: Strong (Blue)

• Medium Term: Neutral (Yellow)

• Short Term: High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold (Red)

Analysis: Similar to Silver, Copper shows long-term strength but is facing short-term bearish momentum and oversold conditions.

Recommendation: Sell/Avoid. The short-term weakness overrides the long-term strength. Be cautious of potential bounces due to oversold conditions, but the overall outlook is bearish.

5. Platinum:

• Long Term: Neutral (Yellow)

• Medium Term: Weak (Red)

• Short Term: Weak (Red)

Analysis: Platinum shows a neutral long-term outlook but weakness in both medium and short terms.

Recommendation: Sell/Avoid. The combined weakness in medium and short terms indicates a bearish trend.

6. Palladium:

• Long Term: Neutral (Yellow)

• Medium Term: Weak (Red)

• Short Term: Weak (Red)

Analysis: Palladium mirrors Platinum with a neutral long term and weakness in medium and short terms.

Recommendation: Sell/Avoid. The bearish trend is evident across the shorter timeframes.

Lester Davids

Analyst: Unum Capital