🟩🟧🟥 JSE Relative Sector Momentum Dashboard

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1. Core Structural Leadership

These sectors exhibit unbroken relative strength across all timeframes, serving as the primary engines of market leadership.

• Banks, Telecoms, & Chemicals: These three sectors demonstrate maximum momentum, maintaining a High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought status across the Long, Medium, and Short Term. The alignment across all durations indicates powerful, institutional capital inflows that face no immediate structural headwinds.

• Insurers: Structurally improving profile. While the Long Term remains Neutral, momentum is accelerating rapidly through the Medium Term (Strong) and into the Short Term (High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought). This clear waterfall of improving shorter-term timeframes suggests the sector is on the verge of a long-term structural breakout.

2. Tactical Overextension & Pullback Risks

Sectors in this category display strong long-term foundations but are showing signs of near-term exhaustion or cooling momentum in the highly reactive daily and weekly intervals.

• Luxury Goods: While the Long Term is Strong, both Medium and Short Term timeframes have pushed into Overbought territory. This indicates extreme tactical extension, making the sector highly vulnerable to a near-term pause or mean-reversion pullback.

• Diversified Miners: Long Term trends remain robust at High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought, but the Medium Term is Overbought and the quick-reacting Short Term has already cooled to Neutral. This represents a classic mid-trend consolidation pattern where immediate upside is likely capped while the short-term overbought conditions unwind.

3. Emerging Turnarounds & Rotation Targets

These sectors represent areas where long-term structural declines are being aggressively challenged by rapid shifts in short- and medium-term momentum.

• Consumer Discretionary: A textbook structural turnaround profile. The Long Term sits at High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold, but the faster-moving Medium and Short Term horizons have violently reversed to Strong. This massive divergence signals that a significant structural bottoming process is underway, driven by aggressive near-term rotation.

• Consumer Staples: Mirroring the discretionary space, Staples show a Weak Long Term trend but have solidified into Strong positioning across both Medium and Short Term timeframes. Institutional positioning is clearly favoring a defensive/consumer pivot.

4. Capitulation & Structural Underperformance

These sectors remain trapped in deep relative downtrends, though shorter timeframes are reaching extreme exhaustion levels.

• Gold Miners & Platinum Miners: Both sectors exhibit deep structural issues, with Gold Weak and Platinum Neutral to Weak on longer horizons. However, both have dropped into Oversold conditions in the Short Term. While not suitable for structural investment, the short-term oversold status sets up the potential for sharp, highly reactive trading bounces.

• Paper & Pulp: Completely washed out on a Long Term basis (Oversold), with minor, sluggish stabilization in the Medium and Short Term at Weak. There is an absence of aggressive accumulation here compared to the consumer sectors.

• Technology & Hospitals: Both present a sluggish profile—Weak in the Long Term and stuck at Neutral across Medium and Short Term windows. These sectors are completely lacking the necessary short-term tactical impulse to trigger a broader turnaround.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital