JSE Discretionary Retailers: Momentum Analysis Report

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tr adingdesk@unum.co.za

Analyst Disclosure: The commentary below has been automatically generated

Woolworths Holdings Limited (WHL)

Core Thesis: Neutral, Range-Bound Action. The share is trading in a wide, choppy range without a clear trend. The recent pullback from the range highs has neutralized all RSI timeframes, with all four indicators clustering between 40 and 51.
Price Action & Projection: The price rallied to the top of its range near 5,600c in mid-October but failed, pulling back sharply to its current 5,270c. With all RSIs now neutral, the model suggests the price will remain range-bound, likely testing the lower part of the range near 5,000c.
Takeaway: This is a neutral, range-bound chart. The RSIs offer no clear directional signal at this time. The setup is best for traders looking to act at the range extremes.

Mr Price Group Limited (MRP)

Core Thesis: Bullish Trend, Undergoing Pullback. The underlying trend is positive, with the Base-Term RSI (53.36) in bullish territory. However, the share is in a sharp, short-term pullback, with the Ultra-Short RSI (33.30) heading towards oversold.
Price Action & Projection: The price rallied strongly from ~20,300c to ~22,600c in October. It is now pulling back, currently at 21,743c. The model projects this pullback may find support soon as short-term RSIs become oversold, which would allow the larger bullish trend to resume.
Takeaway: The underlying trend is bullish. This pullback could present a buying opportunity if the short-term RSIs become fully oversold and show signs of turning up.

The Foschini Group Limited (TFG)

Core Thesis: Bullish Trend Collapse. The share was in a stable, grinding uptrend, but a sudden and severe sell-off in the last few sessions has completely broken the market structure, indicating a potential major negative event or panic.
Price Action & Projection: The price rose steadily from ~10,700c to ~12,200c through September and early October. In the last few sessions, the price has crashed dramatically, falling over 18% to 9,974c. This move is parabolic to the downside. The model projects extreme volatility and uncertainty.
Takeaway: A significant disruptive event appears to have occurred. The prior bullish trend is broken. It is prudent to avoid this share until the price stabilizes and the reason for the crash becomes clear.

Truworths International Limited (TRU)

Core Thesis: Bearish Trend, Neutral Consolidation. The underlying trend is bearish, confirmed by all four RSI timeframes being below 50. The Base-Term RSI (41.37) shows persistent weakness. The price is currently in a neutral, sideways consolidation within this larger downtrend.
Price Action & Projection: The price has been in a clear downtrend since August, falling from over 7,200c. For the last month, it has traded sideways in a tight range between ~5,400c and ~5,800c. The weak RSIs suggest this is a pause, not a reversal. The model projects the price will likely break down from this range, continuing the bearish trend.
Takeaway: The trend is bearish. This neutral consolidation offers no sign of a reversal, and the risk remains skewed to the downside.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Recent Posts