Momentum Re-Accelerating For This JSE Insurer

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026

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Closing Price: 22,786c

1W Change: +0.88%

Multi-Frame Action: 🟢 Breakout (D) 🟢 Constructive (W) 🟢 Price Discovery (M)

Technical Upside: Blue Sky. Psychological resistance at 23,000c.

Target: 24,000c – 24,500c. Trend Extension.

Momentum Signal: Daily Overbought vs. Weekly Stable (Room to Run)

Risk / Invalidation: Close below 21,260c (Breakout Shelf)

Valuation Basket: SA Inc Recovery / Growth Innovation

Primary Driver: Vitality Global Expansion & Earnings Recovery.

MARKET STRUCTURE & VOLUME VALIDATION

Volume Profile: Weekly volume (6.27M) is steady, supporting the move into all-time highs. The absence of a volume spike suggests this is a sustainable accumulation phase rather than a blow-off top.

Liquidity Zones: The 21,260c level is the critical "line in the sand." This level acted as significant resistance previously and has now flipped to support. Price is currently discovering value well above this zone in "Blue Sky" territory.

Divergences: Bullish. The Daily momentum has pushed into the "Overbought" tier to confirm the breakout velocity, yet the Weekly momentum indicators remain in the "Strong" to "Neutral" tiers. This suggests the longer-term trend is far from overheated and has significant capacity for continuation.

MOMENTUM PROFILE (WEEKLY)

Tactical Momentum: Strong. The indicator is hooking up, signaling renewed immediate buying interest after the recent consolidation.

Fast Weekly: Strong. Remains constructive and is confirming the price breakout.

Structural Trend: Strong / Neutral. Moving sideways to slightly up. The fact that this indicator is not yet "Overbought" despite price being at highs is a very bullish signal for trend longevity.

Primary Trend: Neutral. The core baseline is stable, indicating steady institutional support without foam.

CORE THESIS

Discovery has successfully cleared multi-year resistance structures and entered a "Blue Sky" discovery phase. The discrepancy between the "Overbought" Daily momentum (confirming short-term power) and the "Neutral/Strong" Weekly momentum (confirming medium-term fuel) creates a high-probability setup for trend extension. The stock is not technically expensive on a momentum basis despite the price highs. Traders should view pullbacks toward 21,260c as buying opportunities.

Strategy Match

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Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable)

READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned.

"Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

• It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

• The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

• Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

• Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

• Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

• Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

• Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

• Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

• Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

• Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

• Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

• Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

• Whether a share lacks directional bias.

• The data set is available in real-time (on request)

• The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital