US Dollar Index (DXY)

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026

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(1) Potentially executing a short-term tactical bounce from recent structural support, though we must remain open to the probability of continued medium-term consolidation or further testing of the lows. (2) The monthly Quarterly Pulse and Fast Monthly reflect strong momentum, while the longer-term Secular Cycle and Core Baseline remain strictly neutral. (3) Weekly Tactical Momentum has surged into high bullish territory, signaling a sharp counter-trend relief rally, even as the Primary Trend remains anchored in neutral. (4) The daily chart confirms a sharp reversal, with the Ultra Short Term, Short Term, and Mid Term all pushing rapidly into high bullish momentum. (5) Bullish tactical setup: intense short-term buying pressure is attempting to reverse the recent swing low, though it faces overhead macro resistance. (6) Fair value structural support is currently estimated near the recent stabilization base around the 97.50 level. (7) The primary tactical upside target for this relief rally sits near the psychological 100.00 resistance zone. (8) With multiple short-term indicators rapidly heating up, the risk of a minor mean-reversion pullback is increasing before further upside is achieved. (9) A critical structural trend floor is firmly established near the 96.50 macro support level. (10) Strategy: Maintain a cautiously bullish bias for the tactical bounce, utilizing trailing stops to protect against sudden downward macro trend resumption.

Analyzing the recent price action for the DXY, the 10-day candle structure illustrates a clear stabilization phase following a sharp downtrend, forming a firm 'V-shaped' recovery base after sweeping liquidity near the 97.00 level. Zooming in, the 5-day candle structure is characterized by a sequence of predominantly bullish green candles with expanding ranges, showcasing a decisive upward thrust and a breakout from the immediate consolidation zone. The most recent 1-day candle structure confirms this ongoing strength, closing with firm bullish intent near its session highs; this indicates sustained intraday buying pressure and suggests a high probability of immediate short-term upward continuation.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital