Trading EUR/USD

Research: November 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2026

Date/Time: Tuesday, 03 November 2026 (08h56)

For our clients trading or holding EUR/USD.

Disclosure: The analysis below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own data.

Currently, price action for this major FX pair is executing a localized, low-volatility basing structure near the 1.11895 mark, following a brutal multi-week structural markdown that collapsed the asset from its Q3 cyclical peaks. The active daily candle is printing a tight consolidation within an established accumulation floor between 1.11400 and 1.12200. Initiative sellers have largely exhausted their downward velocity after an uninterrupted cascading slide, transitioning the intermediate order flow into a lateral equilibrium as institutional limit buyers attempt to absorb residual supply.   

Setting up this lateral compression was a severe liquidation cascade spanning September through late October, which trapped heavy layers of overhead inventory and aggressively flushed out macro longs from the 1.17000 handle. The pair finally found structural support near the 1.11400 capitulation trough, sparking a series of shallow, overlapping relief candles. However, the broader structural trend remains heavily impaired across higher timeframes, requiring significant technical repair before a primary bull market can officially resume.   

Tactical Action: Neutral ⬜

Best Probability Over 3 Days Price is favored to extend its lateral coiling phase, oscillating tightly between the 1.11400 recent pivot low and the 1.12200 immediate resistance ceiling. Short-term momentum is actively neutralizing from deeply oversold extremes, meaning immediate vertical expansion in either direction currently lacks institutional backing. A failure to sustain price action above the 1.11400 floor will keep the tape heavy, inviting intraday stop-hunting sweeps below the active accumulation block.   

Best Probability Over 5 Days Over the 5-day horizon, the market is poised to firmly test the durability of this accumulation base and challenge the primary intermediate supply ceiling near 1.12200. If responsive buyers can maintain the structural floor and force a confirmed daily breakout above this local resistance, a mechanical short-covering squeeze toward the 1.13000 handle is highly probable as late shorts are trapped. Conversely, a decisive daily close below 1.11400 invalidates the basing thesis, exposing the pair to a renewed macro liquidation wave toward 1.10700.   

Best Probability Over 10 Days Across the two-week macro horizon, the prevailing trend will be dictated by the resolution of the heavy overhead supply generated during the October waterfall decline. If the current 1.11400 – 1.12200 block successfully absorbs terminal distribution, the pair is favored to execute a broader structural rotation higher, attempting to repair the damaged daily structure with a move back toward 1.14000. Until the asset can construct a confirmed higher-high, higher-low sequence, all upward price action remains classified as counter-trend cyclical relief.   

Multi-Timeframe Candle Structure & Momentum Analysis

• Mid Term / Structural Trend (Daily): Momentum profile is displaying an Oversold posture, capturing the extreme downside velocity of the past two months, but is actively attempting to curl higher into the High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold tier as lateral price action bleeds off downside momentum.   

• Fast Weekly / Structural Trend (Weekly): Momentum profile is registering as High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold, characterizing the broader structure as a confirmed distribution regime that has reached cyclical extremes.   

• Quarterly Pulse (Monthly): Momentum profile is registering as Weak, reflecting the severity of the macro markdown originating from the Q3 highs.   

Risks of Entering a Buy/Long Position at Current Levels

• Trading a Counter-Trend Relief Rally: Long positions taken here are fighting a dominant primary downtrend; entering before a confirmed daily close above 1.12200 requires precise timing to avoid getting trapped in a secondary rollover.   

• Dense Overhead Supply: The breakdown leaves massive layers of trapped overhead inventory; any bounces toward 1.13000 or 1.14000 will encounter formidable dynamic resistance from institutional sellers.   

• Stop-Loss Vulnerability: Initiating longs inside a tight consolidation requires placing stops strictly below the 1.11400 macro low, exposing the position to localized stop-hunting liquidity sweeps.   

Risks of Entering a Sell/Short Position at Current Levels

• Shorting into an Active Accumulation Base: Selling at 1.11895 means pushing directly into a defined structural floor where institutional dip-buyers are actively defending the tape.   

• Stretched Macro Markdown: Following a nearly uninterrupted 500-pip slide, secular momentum is deeply extended to the downside, making late shorts highly vulnerable to violent mean-reversion squeezes.   

• Poor Asymmetric Trade Location: Placing logical protective stops wide above the 1.13000 handle to survive routine basing noise severely degrades the trade's risk-to-reward parameters.