Trading AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields & Harmony Gold

Research Notes For 19 to 24 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1924may

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AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

• 7-Day Trend: Weak

• 14-Day Trend: Rangebound

• Short Term (1 to 10 trading days): Very weak. The model suggests waiting until it stabilizes on the lower time frame.

• Medium Term (Next 2 to 4 weeks): Upward trend that has turned weaker. It suggests using rebounds into the 8, 21, or 50-EMA (Exponential Moving Averages) as a potential short sell range.

• Long Term (Next 5 to 8 weeks): Strong upward trend but long risk-reward unattractive with a minor pullback at the present consolidation.

In essence, the model indicates a weak short-term outlook, a potentially weakening medium-term upward trend that could offer short-selling opportunities on rebounds, and a strong but currently unattractive long-term upward trend due to consolidation.

Gold Fields (GFI)

• Short Term (1 to 10 trading days): Very weak. The model suggests waiting until it stabilizes on the lower time frame.

• Medium Term (Next 2 to 4 weeks): Very weak. Similar to the short term, it suggests waiting until it stabilizes on the lower time frame.

• Long Term (Next 5 to 8 weeks): Steady upward trend but weaker on the lower time frame. The model suggests looking for support at or just below the 50-EMA, followed by a reclaim to trigger a rebound buy.

  
  

In summary, the model indicates a weak short-term and medium-term outlook for Gold Fields, while the long-term trend is a steady upward one that is currently weaker on shorter timeframes, with a potential buying opportunity upon finding support and reclaiming the 50-EMA.

Harmony Gold (HAR)

• 7-Day Trend: Weak. The price trend over the last 7 trading days is characterized as weak.

• 14-Day Trend: Bearish. Over the past 14 trading days, the trend is identified as bearish, indicating a downward movement in price.

• Short Term (Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The recommendation is to "Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame" due to the very weak short-term trend. This suggests uncertainty and advises against immediate action until a clearer bottom or stabilization pattern emerges in a shorter timeframe chart.

• Medium Term (Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The analysis indicates an "Upward Trend But Has Turned Weaker." The suggestion is to "Use Rebounds Into The 8, 21 or 50-EMA As A Potential Sell Short Range." This implies that while the medium-term has been upward, it's losing strength, and rallies towards the 8, 21, or 50-period Exponential Moving Averages could present opportunities to enter short positions.

• Long Term (Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The assessment is a "Strong Upward Trend But Long Risk Reward Unattractive Minor Pullback At Present Expect Consolidation." This suggests a solid long-term uptrend, but the current risk-reward for entering long positions isn't favorable due to a minor pullback, and the expectation is for a period of consolidation.

  
  

In essence, the model suggests caution in the short term, potential short opportunities in the medium term on rallies, and while the long-term trend is up, it advises waiting for a better entry point after the current consolidation.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital