top of page

Trading Harmony Gold: Price Action Model + Analysis of Weekly Structure

  • Writer: Lester Davids
    Lester Davids
  • 9 minutes ago
  • 3 min read

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za


FOR THE SECOND TIME IN RECENT WEEKS, HARMONY GOLD HAS REBOUNDED STRONGLY FROM THE BUY RE-ENTRYH RANGE. WITHIN THIS PERIOD, CLIENTS WE ALSO NOTIFIED TO A SELL RE-ENTRY OPPORTUNITY. SEE PREVIOUS POST FURTHER BELOW.


Current Price Action Model


ree

Summary of Price Action Model:


ree

HAR (Harmony Gold) - WEEKLY CHART/TIME FRAME:


The stock has initiated a powerful new impulsive wave within its long-term uptrend.


  • Explosive Trend Resumption: Harmony Gold has staged a massive +14% breakout this week, effectively ending its multi-week consolidation phase. The sheer size of the bullish candle indicates a definitive return of aggressive institutional accumulation.

  • Momentum Rocket: The Ultra Short Term (2-Week) momentum indicator has surged vertically, rocketing from neutral levels deep into the "High Bullish Momentum" tier. This confirms an immediate and intense shift in sentiment, with buyers chasing price indiscriminately.

  • Structural Confirmation: The 14-Week Base Term trend, which had previously cooled into neutrality, has successfully hooked upwards and reclaimed the "Strong" tier. This is a vital signal that the core long-term uptrend is intact and gaining fresh traction.

  • Full Spectrum Alignment: All four momentum timeframes—from the 2-week fast twitch to the 14-week steady hand—are now sloping sharply upwards in unison. This "Momentum Lock" creates a powerful tailwind for price, often leading to sustained trend extensions.

  • Breakout Clearance: The price action has decisively cleared the psychological and structural resistance around the 30000c level. This area, previously a ceiling, has now flipped into a major support floor for the next leg of the bull market.


ree

Core Thesis The bull market in Harmony Gold has resumed with conviction. The decisive breakout above the 30000c level, powered by synchronized rising momentum across all timeframes, suggests the correction is complete. The thesis is aggressively bullish, targeting a test and potential break of the recent cycle highs, with any pullbacks to the breakout zone likely to be bought.


Comprehensive Summary The momentum profile illustrates a textbook "V-shaped" recovery. The fast indicators led the charge, detecting the shift early, while the slower structural indicators provided the safety net. Now, with the Base Term trend confirming strength, the market is firing on all cylinders. The absence of "Overbought" readings on the 7-week and 14-week horizons suggests there is still significant runway left for this rally before it becomes structurally stretched.


Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis The Ultra Short Term trend is in HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT and sloping Sharply Upwards, reflecting the panic-buying nature of the current move. The Short Term trend is STRONG and sloping Sharply Upwards, confirming the immediate breakout is robust. The Mid Term trend is STRONG and sloping Upwards, indicating the intermediate trend has fully recovered. The Base Term trend is STRONG and sloping Upwards, confirming the long-term bull trend is dominant.


Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) The stock has just executed a major weekly breakout. Bullish Continuation: A weekly close above the previous cycle high (approx. 34000c) would confirm a "Blue Sky" breakout, likely accelerating the move toward 36000c and beyond. Bearish


Reversal Risk: A failure to hold the breakout level and a close back below 30000c would be a massive "bull trap" signal, invalidating the current thesis.


Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance is at the recent cycle highs near 34000c. Psychological

Support is now firmly established at 30000c. Structural Support sits lower at the consolidation lows of 26000c. As long as 30000c holds, the path of least resistance is higher.


Previous Post:🎥Video: Trading Harmony Gold: Strong Rebound Off Buy Re-Entry Range (3 Opportunities To Generate Cash)



Previous Post (18 November): Take Profit on Harmony Gold: Price Lower by 18% vs Sell Re-Entry Range


ree

Previous Post (13 November)🎥Watch: Harmony Gold - Solid Rebound (+23%). Now Watch The Sell Side!



Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Comments

bottom of page