Trading Harmony Gold: Technical Condition + Price Action Probabilities

Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za

Here is an assessment of the price action model for Harmony Gold:

• The 7-Day Trend is indicated as "Weak".

• The 14-Day Trend is "Bearish".

• Comparison: The short-term (7-day) trend is weak, while the slightly longer short-term (14-day) trend is bearish. This suggests downward momentum or a lack of strong upward movement across these timeframes. The bearish 14-day trend reinforces the weak 7-day trend, indicating that the recent weakness is part of a broader downward movement.

  
  

• Potential Trading Approach for Harmony Gold:

  • Short Term (Approximately Within The Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Very Weak Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame". Approach: Given the weakness, it's advisable to

  • wait for some sign of stabilization on a lower timeframe before considering any trading actions.

  • Medium Term (Approximately Within The Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "Upward Trend But Has Turned Weaker, However Use Rebounds Into The 8, 21 or 50-EMA As A Potential Sell Short Range". Approach: While there was an upward trend, it has weakened. Look for potential short-selling opportunities on rebounds towards the 8, 21, or 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

  • Long Term (Approximately Within The Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "Strong Upward Trend But Long Risk Reward Unattractive Minor Pullback At Present Expect Consolidation". Approach: The long-term trend is still upward, but the risk-reward is currently unattractive due to a minor pullback. Consolidation is expected in the near term.

  
  

• Overall Trading Considerations for Harmony Gold:

  • Conflicting signals: The short to medium terms indicate weakness or potential short opportunities, contrasting with the long-term strong upward trend.

  • Short-term caution: The model advises waiting for stabilization in the short term due to the current weakness.

  • Medium-term short potential: Rebounds in the medium term could offer opportunities to sell short.

  • Long-term consolidation: Despite the strong long-term trend, expect consolidation in the coming weeks.

In summary, for HARMONY GOLD, the current view suggests short to medium-term weakness with potential short-selling opportunities on rebounds, while the long term remains bullish but is currently in a less attractive risk-reward situation with expected consolidation.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital