For Clients Trading Harmony Gold (HMY) in New York

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025

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HMY is currently undergoing a sharp, high-velocity technical correction following its recent highs above $20.

Core Thesis and Trend Analysis

The recent sharp selling has resulted in a breakdown of the short-term trend structure, as evidenced by the price slicing decisively beneath the entire MA Ribbon. The immediate thesis is one of bearish continuation, with the price likely heading toward the major structural support defined by the longest-term moving averages. The MA Ribbon itself is showing a significant deceleration and reversal of the aggressive uptrend that defined the stock's movement for most of 2025. The current trend is definitively Bearish/Correction, as the ribbon structure begins to compress and turn downwards, which is a classic signal of a deep correction or trend reversal. A test of the $13.31 support level is now highly probable.

Resistance and Structural Breakdown

The stock faces immediate and strong resistance from the now-overhead moving averages. The short-term trend will remain bearish as long as the price trades below the first major resistance line, the Red MA, located at $17.41 This acts as the Immediate Resistance, and re-crossing this level would signal a short-term rebound. Above that, the Green and White moving averages provide the next layer of overhead supply, with the Major Resistance located at $18.06. A sustained close above $18.06 would be required to negate the current structural breakdown.

Key Actionable Zones for Support

The focus is now on identifying where the selling pressure will find a long-term structural floor, as the short-term outlook is decisively bearish. The most critical test level is the Structural Support 1 at $13.31, which is defined by the longer-term solid yellow MA. This level is the likely immediate target for the current selling wave. Should selling intensify, the ultimate Base Support is located at Structural Support 2, defined by the longest-term dotted yellow MA, at $12.58. A break below $12.58 would confirm a full long-term trend reversal and open the path for a much deeper correction. The highest probability buy opportunity lies at these two structural support levels, as they provide the strongest historical base for the long-term uptrend. The bearish momentum is confirmed until the price can reclaim the $17.41 level.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital