Trading Impala Platinum

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026

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Published: Monday, 26 January 2026

Time: 18h30

Closing Price: 36,700c (ZAR)

1D Change: +5.06%

Multi-Frame Action: 🟢 Parabolic (D) 🟢 Breakout (W) 🟢 Vertical (M)

Technical Upside: Blue Sky Breakout. Trading at Multi-Decade / All-Time Highs.

Target: 38,000c – 40,000c. Momentum Extension / Psychological Magnet.

Momentum Signal: "Lock-Out" Extreme.

Risk / Invalidation: Close below 30,000c (Previous Major Resistance turned Support).

Valuation Basket: High Beta / Short Squeeze / PGM Recovery

Primary Driver: Parabolic Platinum/Palladium prices, and Systemic Short Squeeze.

Reward-to-Risk Assessment: 🟢 Long: Moderate/High (Trend is in price discovery mode, but statistical extension is extreme) | 🔴 Short: Very Poor (Fighting a vertical "Lock-Out" is capital destructive).

MARKET STRUCTURE & VOLUME VALIDATION

Volume Profile: The price action is vertical and accelerating. The stock has decisively cleared the 2008 and 2021 structural highs (~30,000c - 33,000c), entering "Blue Sky" territory where no overhead supply exists. The move is characteristic of a "panic buy" event driven by forced covering.

Liquidity Zones: The 30,000c level is now the major "floor" (structural breakout point). The current price of 36,700c is seeking the next psychological level at 40,000c. The gap between current price and support is wide, indicating high volatility risk.

Divergences: None. The Weekly RSI (99.57) and Daily RSI (99.43) are effectively "maxed out." This is a rare "Lock-Out" signal, confirming that the trend is being driven by indiscriminate buying pressure that ignores standard overbought conditions.

MOMENTUM PROFILE (WEEKLY)

Tactical Momentum: Extreme Overbought. The RSI is pinned near 100. This is the definition of a "runaway" trend. In such environments, oscillators stay overbought for the duration of the squeeze.

Fast Weekly: Strong. Rising vertically with price.

Structural Trend: Bullish Breakout. The Monthly chart shows a clean break above the multi-year consolidation range, signaling a new secular advance.

Primary Trend: Bullish. Impala has reasserted itself as a market leader, outperforming even the strong gold sector.

CORE THESIS Impala Platinum is experiencing a historic repricing event. The technicals show a "Lock-Out" rally of rare intensity (RSI ~99), driven by the underlying surge in Palladium and a likely shortage of physical scrip. The stock is in price discovery mode. While the vertical ascent makes new entries high-risk, the momentum is too powerful to fade. The strategy is to hold the trend and trail stops loosely to account for the extreme volatility, targeting the 40,000c psychological level.

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Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable)

READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned.

"Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

• It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

• The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

• Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

• Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

• Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

• Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

• Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

• Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

• Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

• Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

• Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

• Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

• Whether a share lacks directional bias.

• The data set is available in real-time (on request)

• The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital