💡Intraday Regime Dynamics

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NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes

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Last Session: Monday 15 June

The Daily Change From Open (%) metric provides critical insight into institutional execution and intraday sentiment. While standard performance metrics look at close-to-close changes (which include overnight sentiment gaps), the Change From Open isolates price action during the active trading session.

When analyzed alongside our 7 momentum regimes, this metric reveals whether a stock's trend is being actively sustained by intraday buyers or if it is experiencing morning gaps followed by intraday exhaustion.

1. The Overbought Intraday Fade

• The Insight: Multiple structural leaders show negative Change From Open figures despite sitting in highly bullish regimes.

• Key Shares: PPC (-3.07%), SUI (-1.20%), OCE (-0.79%), and OMN (-0.18%).

• Significance: This indicates a classic "gap and fade" pattern. These stocks opened at significant premium highs due to overnight buy orders but faced immediate intraday profit-taking as market makers sold into the opening strength.

2. Intraday Acceleration in High Bullish Tiers

• The Insight: In contrast to the overbought tier, Regime 2 showcases active intraday accumulation, meaning buyers are driving prices higher throughout the session.

• Key Shares: VKE (+2.74%), PPH (+2.59%), NED (+0.99%), and SLM (+1.46%).

• Significance: This confirms strong, healthy momentum. Capital is not just gapping these shares up at the open; institutional accumulation is persistent and aggressive across the trading day.

3. Precious Metals Intraday Blast-Off

• The Insight: Mining and precious metal counters are experiencing explosive intraday buying pressure, leading the entire market in session gains.

• Key Shares: IMP (+6.80%), HAR (+6.49%), VAL (+5.43%), GFI (+4.77%), and ANG (+3.45%).

• Significance: While classified as "Strong" (Regime 3) on a 7-day trailing basis, these intraday surges indicate a massive real-time shift. Institutional desks are aggressively sweeping order books for resource exposure during active hours.

4. Deep Bearish Capitulation

• The Insight: Weak and oversold stocks are failing to find any morning support, experiencing severe intraday structural decay.

• Key Shares: SOL (-5.45%), TGA (-3.33%), CAA (-2.65%), and WVR (-1.73%).

• Significance: For SOL and TGA, opening prices represented the high of the day. Active supply completely overwhelmed any bargain-hunting, signaling urgent institutional distribution and warning against catching falling knives.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital