JSE Platinum Miners: Price Action Models + Current Probabilities
- Lester Davids
- 1 day ago
- 9 min read
Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026
Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.
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Technical Take: Valterra Platinum (VAL)
Regime: Very Bullish / Overbought Primary Outlook: At or approaching sell/reduce
Executive Summary
Valterra is exhibiting extreme bullish momentum, mirroring the setup seen in Anglo American. The stock is in a "Very Strong Move" with buyers firmly in control across all timeframes. However, the consistent warning across every horizon is "Don't Chase." The stock is extended, and the risk of a "Look Above and Fail" scenario at the highs is significant.
Detailed Trend Analysis
1. Short-Term Dynamics (1 - 10 Days)
7-Day Trend: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought
14-Day Trend: Very Bullish
Outlook: Very Strong Move / Buyers In Control.
Analysis: The stock is running hot. While the trend is powerful, the instruction "May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs" suggests that momentum is peaking. The 8-EMA is highlighted as the first target for a mean reversion correction.
2. Medium-Term Structure (2 - 4 Weeks)
Status: Very Strong Move (Risk of Exhaustion)
Analysis: The narrative remains identical to the short term. The market is one-sided, and late entrants are at high risk of being trapped by a sudden reversal.
3. Long-Term Trajectory (5 - 8 Weeks)
Status: Buyers In Control
Analysis: Even on the longer timeframe, the focus is on the failure risk. The guidance is to view the 8-EMA as a Short/Sell Target if the highs are rejected.
Strategic Action Plan
Primary Strategy: Fade the Failure (Mean Reversion).
The Warning: Do not buy here. The risk/reward for new longs is poor.
The Trigger: Watch for a rejection at current highs. If price stalls and slips, initiate a Tactical Short.
Target: The 8-day EMA is the magnet for a pullback.
Technical Take: Impala Platinum (IMP)
Regime: Bullish Momentum Slowing
Primary Outlook: At or approaching sell/reduce
Executive Summary
Impala Platinum shares the "High Bullish Momentum" of its peers but is showing clearer signs of immediate exhaustion. The model explicitly notes that "Momentum [is] Slowing With Sellers Becoming Active" in the medium term. This divergence between high price and slowing momentum is a classic bearish warning signal.
Detailed Trend Analysis
1. Short-Term Dynamics (1 - 10 Days)
7-Day Trend: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought
14-Day Trend: Very Bullish
Outlook: Very Strong Move / Buyers In Control.
Analysis: Like VAL, the short-term trend is up, but the "Don't Chase" warning applies. The 8-EMA is the key level to watch for a breakdown.
2. Medium-Term Structure (2 - 4 Weeks)
Status: Momentum Slowing
Analysis: This is a crucial differentiator. Unlike VAL's "Very Strong" medium-term rating, IMP shows "Strong Upside Move But Momentum Slowing." Sellers are starting to distribute into the rally.
3. Long-Term Trajectory (5 - 8 Weeks)
Status: Unattractive Risk/Reward
Analysis: The advice is blunt: "Do Not Enter Long Here." The risk/reward profile has skewed firmly against buyers.
Strategic Action Plan
Primary Strategy: Defensive / Short Weakness.
Observation: The slowing momentum in the medium term suggests IMP may be the first of the basket to roll over.
Action: Avoid longs. Look for short entries on any sign of weakness, anticipating a deeper correction than just the 8-EMA due to the active selling pressure.
Technical Take: Sibanye Stillwater (SSW)
Regime: Bullish / Pullback Watch
Primary Outlook: Buy on pullback
Executive Summary
Sibanye Stillwater offers a slightly different setup. While the long-term view is "Very Strong," the short-term analysis identifies "Weakness On Lower Time Frame." This makes SSW a candidate for a "Buy on Pullback" strategy rather than a pure "Sell on Rally" or "Fade" setup. The model explicitly advises looking for a dip to the 8 or 21-EMA to reload longs.
Detailed Trend Analysis
1. Short-Term Dynamics (1 - 10 Days)
7-Day Trend: Strong (Not "High Bullish/Overbought")
14-Day Trend: Very Bullish
Outlook: Buyers In Control But Weakness Visible.
Analysis: SSW is slightly less extended than VAL or IMP. The 7-day trend is "Strong" rather than "Overbought." The strategy is to "Look For Pullback To 8 or 21-EMA" as a buying opportunity.
2. Medium-Term Structure (2 - 4 Weeks)
Status: Aggressive Buying (Wait for Pullback)
Analysis: The advice reinforces the short-term view: "Wait For Pullback To Enter Next." However, it also offers a tactical hedge: "If The Highs Fail To Hold Then Short Back To The 8 or 21-EMA."
3. Long-Term Trajectory (5 - 8 Weeks)
Status: Very Strong Move
Analysis: The long-term structure remains robust. Unlike IMP, there is no mention of "Sellers Becoming Active," suggesting the underlying trend is healthier.
Strategic Action Plan
Primary Strategy: Buy the Dip.
The Zone: Watch the 8-EMA and 21-EMA.
The Trade: Allow the current minor weakness to play out. If price stabilizes at these averages, it is a high-probability entry for the next leg up.
Alternative: Tactical shorts are viable only if the highs are clearly rejected, targeting the same moving averages.
Technical Take: Northam Platinum (NPH)
Regime: High Bullish Momentum / Exhaustion
Primary Outlook: At or approaching sell/reduce
Executive Summary
Northam Platinum is in a "High Bullish Momentum" phase but is flashing red warnings regarding entry. The long-term advice is "Do Not Enter Long Here," and the strategy is split between playing a minor bounce off the 8-EMA or waiting for "Overextension To Short Sell." This suggests a late-stage rally environment.
Detailed Trend Analysis
1. Short-Term Dynamics (1 - 10 Days)
7-Day Trend: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought
14-Day Trend: Very Bullish
Outlook: Very Strong Move / Buyers In Control.
Analysis: Similar to VAL, the move is vertical. The risk is a failure to hold highs, targeting a snap-back to the 8-EMA.
2. Medium-Term Structure (2 - 4 Weeks)
Status: Momentum Slowing
Analysis: Like IMP, NPH shows "Momentum Slowing With Sellers Becoming Active." This confirms that the sector-wide move is encountering distribution.
3. Long-Term Trajectory (5 - 8 Weeks)
Status: Aggressive Buying (Do Not Enter)
Analysis: The "Aggressive Buying" description is paired with a warning: "Wait For Overextension To Short Sell." The model anticipates a final blow-off top or failure that will provide a lucrative shorting opportunity.
Strategic Action Plan
Primary Strategy: Short into Overextension.
The Setup: Wait for the price to stretch significantly above equilibrium (overextension).
The Trigger: A reversal candle or failure at highs.
The Target: Initially the 8-EMA, but potentially lower given the slowing medium-term momentum.
Note: Buying is only recommended for a quick scalp ("Next Minor Bounce") off the 8-EMA, not for a position trade.
Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable)
READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned.
"Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup.
THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK
It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:
The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.
Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)
Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position
Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)
Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.
Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)
Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)
Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal
Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend
Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)
Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)
Whether a share lacks directional bias.
The data set is available in real-time (on request)
The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.
TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm
Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops.
TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim
FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc.
TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'
This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES.
Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term
Trade with the primary trend.
Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down.
Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period.
Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels.
If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high.
If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high.
Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss.
The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up.
The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow.
Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down.
Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against.
Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels.
Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels.
‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working.
Above all, know your time horizon.
Lester Davids
Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
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