JSE Momentum Matrix

LEADING PHASE: Strong Trend, Strong Momentum

Equities residing in this phase are experiencing synchronized capital inflows, maintaining both short-term momentum and long-term trends above the critical 50 threshold. The institutional action plan for this cohort is to actively ride the established wave and accumulate aggressively on minor, shallow dips. The absolute vanguard of this group is Montauk Renewables (MKR), showcasing a blistering short-term momentum of 81.99 alongside a long-term trend of 64.70, though its high volatility profile (ATR: 8.77%) demands disciplined position sizing. Acsion Limited (ACS) follows with impressive alignment (ST: 80.34, LT: 82.01), alongside the exceptionally stable Omnia Holdings (OMN) (ST: 76.95, LT: 78.08, ATR: 2.41%) and ADvTECH (ADH) (ST: 74.48, LT: 93.76). Additional high-conviction structural leaders absorbing consistent liquidity include Hyprop Investments (HYP), Shoprite (SHP), Stadio Holdings (SDO), Remgro (REM), and Sasol (SOL), all of which exhibit pristine technical architectures ideally suited for trend-following mandates.

IMPROVING PHASE: Catching a Bid, Weak Trend

This cohort represents the turnaround candidates; these equities possess fundamentally weak long-term trends but are currently experiencing a sudden, aggressive surge in short-term momentum. The strategic mandate here is to actively monitor for confirmed structural breakouts, scaling into positions as they catch a sustained institutional bid. Clicks Group (CLS) is the premier turnaround candidate, demonstrating powerful short-term accumulation (72.47) against a deeply negative long-term base (22.07). Similarly, Spar Group (SPP) is waking up violently from its lows (ST: 71.03, LT: 27.35), alongside Reunert (RLO) (ST: 65.44) and Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP) (ST: 61.73). Other notable names catching early rotational inflows include British American Tobacco (BTI), Mr Price (MRP), and Supermarket Income REIT (SRI), all of which require careful risk management to ensure these moves are genuine reversals rather than deceptive dead-cat bounces.

WEAKENING PHASE: Pulling Back, Strong Trend

Equities transitioning into the weakening phase still hold strong, structurally sound long-term trends but are presently suffering from acute short-term momentum breakdowns. The prudent institutional action is to harvest profits into strength, patiently allowing the asset to consolidate and form a new structural base before re-initiating long exposure. High-quality names resting just below the immediate momentum threshold include Equites Property Fund (EQU), Motus Holdings (MTH), and Altron (AEL). Deeper, more concerning near-term deterioration is actively playing out in heavyweight financials and resources, notably OUTsurance (OUT), Discovery (DSY), Anglo American (AGL), and FirstRand (FSR). The most extreme corrections occurring within established structural uptrends are found in the mining sector, highlighted by the aggressive distribution in Anglogold Ashanti (ANG) (ST: 21.36) and Harmony Gold (HAR) (ST: 21.29), signaling that medium-term trend floors are under severe institutional pressure.

LAGGING PHASE: Heavy Chart, Weak Trend, Weak Momentum

This quadrant represents the most heavily populated, structurally damaged, and systemically toxic segment of the tracked market. Both short-term momentum and long-term trends reside deeply below the 50 mark, mandating that capital should strictly avoid these names and utilize any technical relief rallies as liquidity events to sell or initiate short positions. A cluster of formerly reliable equities now suffers from chronic structural deterioration, including Pick N Pay (PIK), Prosus (PRX), Naspers (NPN), and Richemont (CFR). Retail and industrial names are facing severe lagging conditions, with Truworths (TRU), Bidvest (BVT), and Absa Group (ABG) failing to catch meaningful bids. The absolute basement of the matrix is characterized by intense capitulation, heavily populated by resource and consumer stocks such as Woolworths (WHL), Sanlam (SLM), Kumba Iron Ore (KIO), and Impala Platinum (IMP). The undeniable nadir of market momentum is Gold Fields (GFI), trading at a dismal short-term RSI of 9.17, reflecting total institutional abandonment and zero immediate buying appetite.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital