The Momentum Report
This research note is free.
Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes.
Disclosure: The commentary below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on my own inputs/data.
Extreme Parabolic Velocity: Stadio Holdings (SDO) and Grindrod (GND) are exhibiting historic upside momentum, locking Overbought regimes across all three timeframes (7-day, 7-week, 7-month) simultaneously, signaling extreme trend acceleration.
Severe Capitulatory Velocity: RCL Foods (RCL), We Buy Cars (WBC), and Woolworths (WHL) are trapped in severe momentum collapses, registering outright Oversold readings across all evaluated timeframes.
Multi-Timeframe Overbought Saturation: Shares like ADvTECH (ADH), Bytes Technology (BYI), Emira (EMI), and Omnia (OMN) have pushed 7-day and 7-month RSIs into Overbought territory, severely elevating the probability of a mean-reverting pullback.
Multi-Timeframe Oversold Saturation: Foschini Group (TFG), Pepkor (PPH), and Kumba Iron Ore (KIO) are displaying deep structural momentum exhaustion, characterized by 7-week and 7-month RSIs plunging into sub-30 territory.
Aggressive Counter-Trend Surges: Clicks (CLS), Spar Group (SPP), and Optasia (OPA) have printed massive short-term momentum spikes (Overbought 7-day regimes) completely counter to their dominant long-term bearish trends, signaling violent short-covering.
Frictionless Momentum Accumulation: Aspen (APN), Fortress (FFB), and OUTsurance (OUT) showcase perfect trend absorption, maintaining Strong 7-month regimes while 7-day momentum remains Neutral, allowing trend continuation without overbought friction.
Momentum Neutralization in Resources: Former momentum leaders like Anglo American (AGL) and Anglogold Ashanti (ANG) are experiencing healthy momentum digestion, cooling 7-day RSIs to Weak/Neutral while maintaining Strong 7-month regimes.
Real Estate Momentum Breakouts: A distinct sector-wide momentum surge is visible in REITs. Attacq (ATT), Equites (EQU), and Hyprop (HYP) are simultaneously pushing into High Bullish Momentum on the short-term timeframe.
Mega-Cap Tech Deceleration: Naspers (NPN) and Prosus (PRX) are trapped in persistent Weak momentum regimes across all timeframes, creating a massive momentum drag on aggregate market indices.
Retail Sector Bifurcation: Momentum is heavily splintered in retail. Shoprite (SHP) and Boxer (BOX) are registering Strong upward momentum, while TFG, WHL, and PIK suffer from deeply depressed Weak to Oversold momentum.
Financial Sector Cooling: Banking giants Capitec (CPI), Investec (INL, INP), and FirstRand (FSR) have seen 7-day momentum roll over into Weak territory, erasing short-term premiums and forcing tests of longer-term baselines.
Rubber-Band Downside Extension: Exxaro (EXX), Glencore (GLN), and Richemont (CFR) have suffered rapid High Bearish Momentum thrusts, creating extreme vertical dislocation from their 21-day EMAs and setting up exhaustion bounces.
Rubber-Band Upside Extension: Brait (BAT), Premier Group (PMR), and Southern Sun (SSU) have generated vertical momentum spikes causing massive upward deviation from their moving averages, marking them as highly vulnerable to sudden profit-taking.
Dead Momentum / Zero Velocity: Greencoat (GCT), Canal+ (CNP), and Sabvest (SBP) are displaying completely flat momentum profiles, with Neutral RSIs across the board and zero mean-reversion tension.
Momentum Exhaustion Risk: Raubex (RBX) is flashing a High Bullish Momentum short-term regime directly into descending long-term moving averages, a classic signature of impending momentum exhaustion.
Aggressive Short-Term Distribution: Quilter (QLT) and Momentum Group (MTM) have abruptly shifted into High Bearish Momentum on the 7-day timeframe, signaling active institutional distribution.
Persistent Downward Drag: African Rainbow Minerals (ARI) and Blu Label (BLU) are suffering from a chronic lack of upward momentum, trapped in Weak regimes across all horizons with no signs of divergence.
Chemical Sector Digestion: Sasol (SOL) has successfully neutralized its short-term momentum (51.85) after a massive run, while its BEE counterpart (SOLBE1) remains highly Overbought (81.24) and extended.
Base-Building Momentum: Alexander Forbes (AFH) and Ninety One (NY1) are showing early signs of momentum shifts, pushing 7-day momentum into Strong territory off historically depressed baselines.
Aggregate Momentum Skew: The dataset reveals a highly polarized momentum landscape. Very few stocks occupy the 42-58 (Neutral) band across all timeframes; the market is currently defined by extremes, forcing aggressive mean-reversion setups on both the long and short sides.
Resources (Where Applicable)
READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned.
"Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup.
THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK
It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:
The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.
Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)
Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position
Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)
Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.
Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)
Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)
Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal
Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend
Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)
Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)
Whether a share lacks directional bias.
The data set is available in real-time (on request)
The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.
TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm
Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops.
TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim
FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc.
TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'
This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES.
Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term
Trade with the primary trend.
Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down.
Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period.
Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels.
If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high.
If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high.
Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss.
The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up.
The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow.
Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down.
Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against.
Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels.
Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels.
‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working.
Above all, know your time horizon.
Lester Davids
Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
Comments