JSE Momentum Wrap

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026

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1. The Yield Squeeze (Banks on Hold) 🏦 📉 With inflation proving sticky and renewed whispers of interest rate hikes creeping back into the market, the major banks are paralyzed. Absa (ABG), Nedbank (NED), and Standard Bank (SBK) are all trapped in a "Wait / Range Trade" holding pattern. The violent sell-offs have paused, but the fear of "higher for longer" borrowing costs is keeping a heavy lid on any real financial momentum.

2. The Energy Paradox (Oil's Double Edge) 🛢️ ⚠️ The escalating Middle East conflict is keeping oil prices dangerously volatile near their highs. This is acting as rocket fuel for Oando (OAO), which is firing a "Buy Breakout" signal with High Bullish momentum. However, Sasol (SOL) is flashing a bright red "Sell on Rally." Sasol's momentum is mathematically exhausted (1 Overbought), suggesting institutional players are using the geopolitical oil spike as exit liquidity rather than a reason to buy.

3. The Gold Shield (Safe Haven Accumulation) 🥇 🛡️ Geopolitical panic is driving a silent rotation into safe havens. After enduring a brutal flush, gold heavyweights like Anglogold Ashanti (ANG) and Gold Fields (GFI) have shifted into the "Accumulate / Base Building" phase. The falling knives have stuck in the floorboards, and smart money is quietly loading up on protection while the daily momentum resets to a safe neutral level.

4. The Consumer Divide (Survival vs. Discretionary) 🛒 👗 High rates and fuel-driven inflation are destroying disposable income, splitting the retail sector in half. The market is brutally punishing clothing retailers like Mr Price (MRP) and Foschini (TFG), burying them in the "Sell on Rally" and "Observe" tiers as they hit Oversold floors. Meanwhile, grocery giants like Shoprite (SHP) and Boxer (BOX) are enjoying "Buy Breakouts" as squeezed consumers focus purely on absolute necessities.

5. The Medicine Cabinet (Defensive Bids) 💊 📈 Alongside food, healthcare is acting as a primary defensive shield against macro uncertainty. Dis-Chem (DCP) is firing on all cylinders with a "Buy Breakout" and High Bullish daily momentum. When the threat of war and rate hikes peaks, institutional capital hides in businesses that generate predictable, inflation-resistant cash flows regardless of the economic weather.

6. The Property Paralysis (REITs Crushed) 🏢 ⏸️ Real estate thrives on cheap debt, which is currently nowhere to be found. With renewed rate hike concerns, the highly leveraged property sector is completely stagnant. Lighthouse Properties (LTE) is crushed at the absolute floor (7 Oversold), while the rest of the REITs, like NEPI Rockcastle (NRP) and Fortress (FFB), are trapped in a flat "Wait / Range Trade" purgatory until the yield curve breaks.

7. The Rand Hedges (Absorbing the Shock) 🌍 💻 The US interest rate narrative is keeping the Rand on the back foot, punishing domestic earners. Massive offshore earners like Naspers (NPN), Prosus (PRX), and Richemont (CFR) have settled into stable "Wait / Range Trade" structures. They aren't breaking out, but they aren't breaking down either; they are acting as massive, neutral shock absorbers against domestic currency volatility.

8. The Industrial Exhaustion (Late-Stage Fatigue) 🏭 🛑 The heavy industrial and chemical complex is running completely out of steam. Omnia (OMN) and Glencore (GLN) are pinned to their absolute momentum ceilings (1 Overbought) and are flashing "Sell on Rally" or "Hold / Trail Stops." The macro engine suggests these cyclical rallies are mathematically exhausted, making them prime candidates for sharp profit-taking if global growth fears accelerate.

9. The Coal Outlier (Insulated Energy) ⛏️ 🚂 While the broader resource sector struggles with global demand fears, Thungela Resources (TGA) is ignoring the gravity. Resting safely in the "Wait / Range Trade" daily tier but holding massive long-term structural strength, it remains insulated by the ongoing global energy supply constraints tied to the geopolitical fractures in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

10. The Tactical Mandate (Patience & Preservation) 🛑 💵 With war premiums injected into oil and central banks threatening to hike, this is definitively not a "buy the dip" market. The momentum board is flooded with "Wait / Range Trade" signals. The mathematical extremes demand that we fade the overheated rallies, hunt for deep value in the base-builders, and keep cash ready for the moment the macro tension finally breaks.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital