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JSE Momentum Wrap

  • Writer: Lester Davids
    Lester Davids
  • Mar 26
  • 3 min read

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

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  1. The Vertical Ceiling (Chemicals & Energy) 🧪 🛑 The vertical momentum in the heavy chemical complex has hit a hard mathematical wall. Omnia (OMN) and Sasol (SOL) are now locked in a triple-confluence of 🟢 1 OVERBOUGHT across Daily, Weekly, and Monthly anchors. This is the ultimate "exhaustion" signature; your engine mandates a "Sell on Rally" stance as the probability of further vertical gains is now dwarfed by the risk of a mean-reversion crash toward the 8-EMA.


  2. The Defensive Masterclass (Retail Heavyweights) 🛒 🛡️ Institutional capital is aggressively rotating into defensive liquidity. Boxer (BOX) and Shoprite (SHP) are defying the broader market gloom, firing 🟢 Buy Breakout signals with synchronized 3 STRONG momentum across all tiers. In a high-inflation, high-rate environment, the "necessity" trade is the only pocket showing genuine, sustained accumulation.


  3. The Banking Thaw (Alpha in Financials) 🏦 📈 The "Yield Squeeze" is finally showing cracks, but only for the leaders. Absa (ABG) and Capitec (CPI) have successfully pivoted into 🟢 2 HIGH BULLISH Daily momentum, signaling a tactical breakout from their recent ranges. While Standard Bank (SBK) remains in a ⚪ 4 NEUTRAL "Wait" pattern, the shift in ABG suggests the financial sector isbeginning to price in a stabilizing yield curve.


  4. The Medicine Cabinet Shield (Healthcare Bids) 💊 🟢 Healthcare remains the primary tactical bunker. Dis-Chem (DCP) and Netcare (NTC) are showing elite multi-timeframe alignment, both sitting in 🟢 High Bullish or Strong tiers. As geopolitical tensions keep the Rand volatile, these domestic defensive bids are providing the highest structural reliability on the board.


  5. The Infrastructure Pulse (Industrial Bids) 🏗️ ⚙️ A rare surge is emerging in select industrial counters. AECI (AFE) and ADvTECH (ADH) are pinned to 🟢 1 OVERBOUGHT or 2 HIGH BULLISH levels. While AFE is a "Hold / Trail Stops" candidate due to extreme extension, the move in ADH suggests that high-quality, service-oriented industrials are capturing the "Alpha" that is fleeing the volatile resource sector.


  6. The Recovery Search (Laggard Turnarounds) 🔄 🔍 We are seeing the first signs of life in beaten-down quality shares. Richemont (CFR) and Aspen (APN) have moved into 🟢 Buy Breakout territory on the Daily level despite their higher-tier anchors still being ⚪ Neutral. This represents a "Tactical Hand-off" where the short-term noise is finally starting to lead a macro trend reversal.


  7. The Waterfall Capitulation (Deep Value Traps) 🌊 🔴 The "falling knife" sector remains dangerous for those without a structural filter. Lighthouse (LTE), Alexander Forbes (AFH), and Bytes (BYI) are locked in a 🔴 7 OVERSOLD death spiral. Your engine flags these as "Avoid" or "Distribution" candidates; until the Daily momentum shifts to at least 🟠 5 WEAK, the mathematical floor has not been confirmed.


  8. The PGM Paralysis (Resources on Hold) ⛏️ ⏸️ Unlike the vertical surge in Sasol, the PGM complex is stuck in the mud. Northam (NPH), Impala (IMP), and Sibanye (SSW) are all trapped in ⚪ 4 NEUTRAL or 🟠 5 WEAK Daily patterns. They are currently "no-man's-land" trades, lacking the momentum to break out and the capitulation depth to be considered "deep value."


  9. The Retail Fracture (Survival vs. Style) 👗 📉 The divide between "Necessity" and "Discretionary" is now a chasm. While grocery is 🟢, apparel is 🔴. Mr Price (MRP) and Truworths (TRU) are languishing in Oversold or High Bearish tiers. They are statistically deep in the "Sell on Rally" zone, meaning every tactical bounce is being used by institutions to further reduce exposure to the squeezed consumer.


  10. The Tactical Mandate (Precision Execution) 🎯 💵 The board is currently split between Vertical Exhaustion and Selective Breakouts. The mandate is clear: Fade the extremes in OMN and SOL, Ride the defensive waves in BOX and DCP, and Wait for the Waterfall laggards like LTE to establish a ⚪ Neutral base. It is a market for the patient sniper, not the broad-market buyer.


Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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