Nasdaq 100 Index

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za

(1) Potentially executing a structural correction from recent cycle highs, though the underlying macro trend may still remain intact. (2) The monthly Core Baseline remains strong, but the Quarterly Pulse has plunged into high bearish momentum, reflecting a sharp macro retracement. (3) Weekly Tactical Momentum and Fast Weekly indicators have broadly dropped into the weak tier, confirming an intermediate pullback phase. (4) Daily Ultra Short Term and Short Term momentum currently rest in the weak tier, tracking the recent short-term selling pressure. (5) Setup: Fast indicators across multiple timeframes show synchronized weakness, actively testing the longer-term structural baselines. (6) Fair value structural support appears to be approaching near the 24,000 USD zone. (7) A primary tactical relief target could potentially reach back toward the 25,500 USD resistance level. (8) Continued downward momentum indicates a high probability of further support testing before a durable base is established. (9) A deeper structural trend floor is located near the 22,500 USD macro level. (10) Strategy: Exercise patience; await a confirmed daily momentum reset into the neutral or strong tiers before initiating new long positions.

Reviewing the recent price action for the NASDAQ 100, the 10-day candle structure reveals a clear top-level rejection. After pushing to marginal new highs near the 26,000 USD level, the index experienced a structural rollover, breaking decisively below its immediate consolidation zone. Zooming in on the 5-day candle structure, this rollover translates into a sharp tactical pullback characterized by a sequence of consecutive lower highs and lower lows, heavily dominated by bearish red candles that highlight sustained short-term selling pressure. The most recent 1-day candle structure confirms this ongoing weakness, closing bearishly near its session lows and indicating a distinct lack of intraday buying support to halt the immediate downward momentum.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital