Trading Nasdaq 100: Momentum Analysis + Key Actionable Areas

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025

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1. Extreme Bullish Trend: The NASDAQ 100 is in a very strong, well-established long-term uptrend, trading near all-time highs. The primary trend remains powerfully bullish.

2. Short-Term Exhaustion/Neutrality: The Ultra Short-Term (50.35) and Short-Term (45.94) momentum indicators have pulled back sharply from the Overbought tiers and are currently sitting in the NEUTRAL zone. This signals that the immediate buying pressure has exhausted, and the market is entering a phase of consolidation or sideways movement.

3. Mid-Term Structural Strength: The Mid-Term (53.56) and Base Term (57.79) momentum are both firmly in the upper half of the NEUTRAL tier, confirming the structural integrity of the longer-term uptrend remains solid.

4. No Structural Risk Yet: No momentum indicator is approaching the WEAK or OVERSOLD tiers. The overall profile suggests the market is merely taking a healthy pause rather than signaling a risk of a significant reversal.

5. Continuation Setup: The market is poised for a bullish continuation once the short-term consolidation is complete. A move by the Ultra Short-Term RSI back above 65 would signal the return of strong directional momentum and a likely challenge of the recent highs.

The index is currently undergoing a minor, healthy pullback from its recent all-time highs, with all short-term momentum indicators resetting back toward the midline. Current Price: 25679

Core Thesis

The aggressive short-term buying pressure has exhausted, causing the Ultra Short-Term and Short-Term momentum indicators to revert to the NEUTRAL zone. This action represents a healthy consolidation phase within a dominant long-term uptrend. The thesis favors a bullish continuation once the short-term momentum indicators begin to turn upwards again, signaling the market is ready to challenge new highs.

Comprehensive Summary

The NAS100's momentum profile confirms a strong underlying bullish structure despite the minor current correction. Both the Ultra Short-Term and Short-Term momentum indicators have completed their pullback from the Overbought tiers, now stabilizing in the NEUTRAL zone. This neutralization of short-term momentum is constructive, absorbing prior gains without triggering significant selling. The Mid-Term and Base Term trends remain firmly positioned in the upper half of the NEUTRAL tier, showing that the long-term structural integrity is fully intact and the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Multi-Timeframe Momentum Analysis

The momentum is resetting across the shortest timeframes while holding structural strength:

• Ultra Short-Term Momentum: Currently at 50.35. This is firmly in the NEUTRAL tier, having dropped aggressively from the Overbought extreme. Sloping sideways, indicating immediate buying pressure is fully paused.

• Short-Term Momentum: Currently at 45.94. This is in the NEUTRAL tier, showing a balanced, non-directional bias. Sloping sideways, reinforcing the consolidation phase.

• Mid-Term Momentum: Currently at 53.56. This is in the NEUTRAL tier, indicating a balanced structural trend. Sloping sideways, confirming intermediate stability.

• Base Term Momentum (14-Period): Currently at 57.79. This is firmly in the NEUTRAL tier and is positioned near the STRONG boundary. Sloping sideways, confirming the dominant long-term trend remains structurally sound.

Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus)

The index is consolidating beneath its recent highs and preparing for the next directional move.

• Immediate Pressure (Consolidation): The neutral momentum across all timeframes suggests the index will likely remain in a tight consolidation range over the immediate term, with the midline of the RSI acting as an anchor.

• Bullish Continuation Confirmation: A definitive break and close above the recent high 25800 would signal the end of consolidation and the start of a new, aggressive push toward 26,000.00.

• Bearish Breakdown Reversal (Structural): A clear and sustained close below the nearest strong support 24,500 would be required to confirm a structural breakdown, though this is currently a low-probability event given the strength of the long-term trend.

Key Actionable Zones

The actionable zones focus on capturing the next bullish push and defining the key support structure for the current consolidation. The Breakout Resistance is the immediate ceiling that must be overcome, located between 25,800.00 - 26,000.00, which would confirm the continuation of the dominant uptrend. Conversely, the Consolidation Support between 25200 - 25500 is the anticipated area for the index to stabilize during this short-term pause, offering a potential high-probability entry for long positions. Finally, the Base Structural Support at 24500 represents the major structural low of the recent consolidation and must hold to maintain the overall bullish thesis.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital