Northam Platinum: Consolidation Phase

Lester Davids
10h
3 min read

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025

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Highlights:

The Perfect Reset: Northam Platinum has successfully cleared all short-term momentum "froth." The Ultra Short Term and Short Term indicators have fully normalized from their previous overbought extremes and are now resting in the "Weak" to "Neutral" tiers. This indicates the market has "reloaded" its energy for the next directional move.
High Base Integrity: The price is maintaining an elevated level, consolidating just below the recent cycle high of 32,000c. The ability of the stock to hold ground while momentum indicators normalize is a strong characteristic of a healthy, aggressive uptrend.
Structural Strength: The structural support remains intact. The Mid Term and Base Term indicators are clustered near the "Strong" threshold, confirming that the primary uptrend is resilient and robust, waiting for the faster indicators to align for continuation.
Coiled Spring Dynamic: The convergence of all four indicators within the 40-60 range confirms a "Coiled Spring" setup. The lack of selling pressure during this reset suggests the highest probability resolution is a resumption of the trend.

Best Action Timeline/Price Action Probability

1 to 10 days: 70% Probability of Breakout to ATH and Extension. The successful momentum reset signals a high-probability thrust to clear the 32,000c all-time high, targeting 33,500c.
2 to 4 weeks: 65% Probability of Sustained Trend and Base Formation. The structural Base Term momentum will be dragged into the "Strong" tier, confirming that 32,000c has converted to new support for the continuation phase.
5 to 8 weeks: 60% Probability of Structural Rally Continuation. The newly established trend will mature, driving the price toward the major extension target of 34,500c.

🟢 Bullish Scenario: Trend Resumption: The Ultra Short Term indicator quickly hooks up and breaks above the 60 threshold. Price clears 31,000c on volume, confirming the end of consolidation and targeting 32,000c (ATH).

⚪ Base Scenario: Extended Chop: The market remains indecisive. Price stays range-bound between 30,000c and 31,000c for the week, allowing the Mid and Base Term indicators to fully stabilize before the next attempt at a breakout.

🔴 Bearish Scenario: Consolidation Failure: Price fails to hold the 30,000c psychological level. The Base Term indicator is dragged below the 42 threshold, signaling a breakdown toward 28,000c.

Momentum Profile (Daily Focus)

The momentum structure is in a Bullish Consolidation pattern, having successfully reset from previous highs:

Ultra Short Term: Indication: WEAK (Pivoting) | Slope: Flat/Upwards
Short Term: Indication: NEUTRAL | Slope: Flat/Upwards
Mid Term: Indication: NEUTRAL (Approaching Strong) | Slope: Flat
Base Term: Indication: NEUTRAL (Approaching Strong) | Slope: Flat

Core Thesis Northam Platinum is in the final stages of a highly constructive consolidation. The successful reset of short-term momentum combined with strong structural support makes this a high-probability continuation setup. The bias is heavily bullish, focusing on an imminent breakout above 32,000c.

Key Actionable Zones

Immediate Resistance: 31,000c (Consolidation Ceiling).
Breakout Trigger: 32,000c (All-Time High).
Pivot Support: 30,000c (Psychological Round Number).
Critical Structural Support: 28,000c (Trend Defense).

Previous Post (Monday, 01 December): Take Profits on Northam Platinum (Running +14%) + Next Best Sell Range

If the share immediately continues it's bullish trend/acceleration, then then it could be extended vs it's 8 and 21-day EMA. Look for an overshoot of the previous swing high combined with deteriorating candle structure in the ultra short term. If it pulls back immediately, then we would look to buy dips.