Naspers: Strong Sell-Off + Current Price Action Model Reading

Lester Davids
Jan 22
2 min read

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026

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Significant sell-off since our flash note on 06 November where the extremely overbought ultra short term conditions were highlighted.

Regime: Oversold / Aggressive Selling Primary Outlook: At or approaching buy/add

Executive Summary

Naspers has deteriorated significantly from its status earlier in the month, shifting into a "Very Bearish" regime characterized by "Aggressive Selling." However, this selling pressure has pushed the 7-day trend into "Oversold" territory. The model advises against catching the falling knife immediately ("Wait For Lower Time Frames To Stabilize") but identifies a setup developing for a tactical bounce off prior swing lows.

Detailed Trend Analysis

1. Short-Term Dynamics (1 - 10 Days)

7-Day Trend: Oversold
14-Day Trend: Very Bearish
Outlook: No Reading Available
Analysis: The stock is currently in a capitulation phase. The "Oversold" reading suggests the move is overextended to the downside. The lack of a specific short-term reading ("no reading available") often accompanies high-volatility washout periods where the price action is noisy and directionless until a bottom is found.

2. Medium-Term Structure (2 - 4 Weeks)

Status: Aggressive Selling
Analysis: The dominant force is selling. The explicit instruction is to "Wait For Lower Time Frames To Stabilize." This implies that while the price is attractive due to the oversold condition, the technical structure has not yet confirmed a floor. Patience is required.

3. Long-Term Trajectory (5 - 8 Weeks)

Status: Aggressive Selling (Broken Trend)
Analysis: The "Steady Upward Trend" noted at the end of December has been disrupted by aggressive selling. The focus has shifted from trend continuation to mean reversion. The strategy is now "Looking For Support At Prior Swing Lows To Capture Minor Rebounds," indicating that any buying here is for a tactical snap-back rather than a long-term investment.

Strategic Action Plan

Primary Strategy: Tactical Bounce (Mean Reversion).
The Setup: The stock is deeply oversold.
The Trigger: Do not buy simply because it is down. Monitor "Prior Swing Lows" for signs of stabilization (e.g., exhaustion candles or a shift in lower-timeframe momentum).
The Trade: Once stabilization occurs, look to enter for a "Minor Rebound."
Risk Management: Recognize this is a counter-trend trade against "Very Bearish" momentum. Stops should be tight, and expectations for the bounce should be modest (mean reversion targets).