Prosus: Early Buy Trigger; Lower Levels Expected Before Potential Rebound

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026

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Analyst's Price Action Model

Prosus N.V. - Weekly Chart

Momentum Profile: The weekly momentum profile exposes a violent, uniform bearish capitulation. The Base Term, Mid Term, Short Term, and Ultra Short Term tiers have all plunged deep into extremely weak and historically oversold territory. This severe downward clustering across the entire momentum suite signals a massive institutional exodus and overwhelming selling pressure. However, the absolute fastest oscillators are beginning to flatten at the zero-bound extreme, hinting at potential seller exhaustion in the immediate term.

Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias: Evaluating the broader macro context, the asset previously engineered a massive structural uptrend, peaking near the ~130,000c macro resistance zone. Within the 10-week window, this distribution phase resolved violently to the downside, fracturing the macro floor and initiating a brutal waterfall decline. Looking at the immediate 3-to-5-week timeframe, the tape bled out relentlessly, carving through multiple psychological floors. Isolating the immediate 1-week timeframe, the asset printed a small-bodied hesitation candle (a doji or spinning top) near ~75,972c, temporarily arresting the vertical free-fall. Given the deeply oversold fast momentum and the catastrophic structural breakdown, the tactical bias leans toward 🔴 Avoid / Waterfall Capitulation, though we are on high alert for a mean-reversion snapback.

Key Support & Resistance Levels: Overhead supply and macro resistance are now firmly established at ~85,000c to ~90,000c, representing recently broken support floors that now act as a massive ceiling containing trapped longs. Immediate structural support sits lower at the ~65,000c historical pivot, marking the next logical liquidity pool and the deeper target for the current flush. Should this major floor give way, deep historical demand lies much lower around ~53,000c to ~55,000c.

Next Candle Probability: The current price action is a textbook manifestation of Scenario 99: 🔴 Waterfall Capitulation (Exhaustion Pause). The 1-week candle definitively arrested the immediate slide, printing a narrow-range hesitation structure at the lows. While the extreme oversold momentum readings can spark violent intraday relief bounces, the highest structural probability for the next weekly candle is highly volatile, bidirectional chop as the market attempts to find an equilibrium, with a persistent underlying risk of a secondary flush to test the ~65,000c support zone.

Primary View Invalidation: To invalidate this bearish capitulation primary view, buyers must orchestrate a miraculous, high-volume V-shaped short squeeze that immediately arrests the slide and sustains a weekly close back above the ~85,000c breakdown level. This would trap the aggressive short positioning, suggest the massive flush was an anomalous liquidity sweep, and stabilize the broader macro structure for a potential recovery.

The Next 10 Days: Over the next two trading weeks, the asset faces a critical stabilization test as it navigates the immediate fallout of this waterfall decline. Given the extreme oversold state of the fast momentum oscillators, market participants should anticipate highly erratic volatility, where sudden, sharp short-covering relief rallies are entirely plausible but remain structurally suspect. If buyers fail to orchestrate a definitive V-shaped recovery to clear local resistance, these bounces will simply provide fresh liquidity for institutional sellers, likely resulting in a secondary wave of distribution that presses the tape down to definitively test the ~65,000c historical demand zone.

Tactical Risk Assessment: Buying vs. Selling

• What's the risk of buying now? The primary risk of initiating a new long position at these levels is attempting to catch a falling knife in an active liquidation event. While momentum is historically oversold, a structurally damaged tape can grind lower for weeks or months. By buying prematurely before a confirmed higher-low base is established, you risk getting swept up in secondary algorithmic margin calls if the asset flushes toward the ~65,000c support void. What Can Change? If institutional buyers aggressively step in to defend the tape at current levels and print a confirmed reversal pattern (such as a high-volume bullish engulfing weekly candle), it would immediately signal that the algorithmic liquidation phase has exhausted itself and a durable macro base is forming.

• What's the risk of selling now? The primary risk of selling (whether panicking out of a long or initiating a late speculative short position) is the danger of getting caught in a violent "rubber band" short-squeeze. Because all momentum tiers are pinned at extreme oversold lows, the tape is highly pressurized. Any minor positive catalyst could ignite a rapid, high-velocity relief rally toward the ~85,000c supply wall, which would aggressively liquidate late short sellers and force them to buy back at much higher prices. What Can Change? If the current hesitation candle fails entirely and the asset suffers a definitive, high-volume weekly close below the recent panic lows, it would confirm that sellers remain in absolute control. This would signal that the anticipated mean-reversion squeeze has been aborted, opening the trap door for a direct continuation of the waterfall decline toward historical demand.

Forecast Projection Breakdown: With fast momentum completely bottomed out and a clear downward expansion pattern cemented on the chart, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors a test of lower liquidity pools, though the extreme stretch warrants high vigilance for sudden snap-backs.

• The Bearish Scenario (55% Probability): The capitulation continues after a brief pause. Sellers easily slice through the recent lows, initiating a rapid markdown targeting the ~65,000c liquidity pool as structural panic persists.

• The Base/Neutral Scenario (30% Probability): The intense selling pressure temporarily exhausts itself. The asset enters a choppy, highly volatile lower-range distribution phase between ~70,000c and ~85,000c as the market attempts to find an equilibrium amid shifting flows.

• The Bullish Scenario (15% Probability): The extreme oversold momentum triggers a violent short-covering squeeze. Buyers aggressively absorb the supply and force a rapid upward spike back toward the ~85,000c broken floor, invalidating the immediate free-fall.

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READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS

For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital.

The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include:

• Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes

• Momentum indicators

• Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance

• Candle structure

• Moving averages and standard deviation

Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

• It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

• The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

• Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

• Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

• Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

• Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

• Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

• Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

• Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

• Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

• Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

• Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

• Whether a share lacks directional bias.

• The data set is available in real-time (on request)

• The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital