Overall Market Shifts: A Strong Q1 Rotation

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026

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Published on Sunday, 29 March for Monday, 30 March.

The most striking takeaway between the end of 2025 and the end of Q1 2026 is the dramatic, broad-based improvement in market momentum.

In December 2025, the market was largely stagnant or defensive, dominated by "Neutral" (yellow) and "Weak/Bearish" (red/pink) signals. By late March 2026, there was a massive rotation into cyclical, financial, and resource sectors, turning the board into a sea of "Strong" (blue) and "Bullish/Overbought" (green/pink) signals.

However, this aggressive risk-on shift wasn't universal; sectors like Platinum and Consumer Discretionary suffered severe breakdowns during the same period.

Sector-by-Sector Breakdown

Financials (The Big Winners)

• Banks: Massive Improvement. Moved from perfectly "Neutral" across all timeframes in December to "Strong" across the board by late March. This indicates a sustained, powerful rally.

• Insurers: Significant Strengthening. Followed the banks, moving from "Weak/Neutral" to "Strong" in both the medium and short term, while neutralizing its long-term weakness.

Resources & Mining (High Volatility & Divergence)

• Diversified Miners (listed as Miners in Dec): Aggressive Breakout. Transformed from long-term "Weak" to "Strong," with medium-term momentum pushing all the way into "Overbought" territory.

• Coal Miners: Major Turnaround. Jumped from "Weak/Neutral" to a "Strong" long-term trend, with medium-term momentum rocketing to "High Bullish."

• Chemicals: From Worst to First. The most extreme reversal on the board. It went from "High Bearish" (Long Term) and "Weak" (Medium Term) in December to "High Bullish" and "Overbought" across all timeframes in March.

• Gold Miners: Consolidation. Cooled off slightly but remains very healthy. Long-term momentum stepped down from "High Bullish" to "Strong," while the short-term improved from "Weak" to "Neutral." It is digesting its late-2025 gains.

• Platinum Miners: Dramatic Collapse. The absolute biggest loser. In December, it was the only sector showing "Strong" across all three timeframes. By March, it had completely broken down, dropping to "Neutral" (Long Term), "Weak" (Medium Term), and "High Bearish" (Short Term).

Consumer & Defensive Sectors

• Consumer Staples: Mixed. Long-term momentum downgraded from "Neutral" to "Weak," but short-term momentum saw a sharp bounce to "Strong." This suggests a recent counter-trend rally in a weakening macro setup.

• Consumer Discretionary: Continued Deterioration. Things went from bad to worse. Long-term momentum fell from "High Bearish" into officially "Oversold," and medium-term momentum dropped from "Weak" to "High Bearish."

• Hospitals: Short-Term Surge. While the long-term trend remains firmly "Weak," a sudden burst of buying pressure pushed medium-term momentum to "High Bullish" and short-term to "Strong."

TMT (Tech, Media, Telecom) & Industrials

• Telecoms: Solidified Strength. Improved steadily, upgrading long-term and medium-term momentum from "Neutral" to "Strong," maintaining a very healthy posture.

• Technology: Persistent Weakness. Failed to catch the Q1 rally. Long-term momentum worsened from "Weak" to "High Bearish," while short and medium terms remain stuck in weakness.

• Paper & Pulp: Near-Term Bounce. Long-term momentum is still struggling (moving from Oversold to High Bearish), but short-term momentum spiked from "Neutral" to "Strong."

• Luxury Goods: Stagnant. Showed absolutely no shift. It remains "Weak" in the long term and "Neutral" in the medium and short term.

  
  

Relative Sector Ratings as of the close on Friday, 27 March 2026.

Relative Sector Ratings as of the close on Wednesday, 31 December 2025.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital