top of page
Writer's pictureLester Davids

Resource Centre

Updated: May 30

Resource Centre - Various Ideas Around Trading Strategy That May Be Beneficial To Clients.



Click on the image to enlarge.






Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term


  • Trade with the primary trend.

  • Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down.

  • Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period.

  • Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels.

  • If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high.

  • If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high.

  • Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss.

  • The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up.

  • The first back-test of the 50-day moving average has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow.

  • Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down.

  • Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against.

  • Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels.

  • Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels.

  • ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working.

  • Above all, know your time horizon.


Core Macro Principles


  • Watch the US 10 Year Bond Yield: Higher levels are negative for growth stocks, but positive for cyclical sectors.

  • Watch Brent Crude Oil. Higher levels = brighter outlook for global economy or the anticipation of tighter supply but could also result in inflationary pressures and a tightening of monetary policy.

  • If you’re expecting the US Dollar to appreciate, that’s historically been a negative for commodities and commodity currencies.

  • Higher commodity prices = A stronger Rand. If you’re anticipating a strong Rand, accumulate SA focused shares that have lagged the market.

  • If news out of the Chinese economy is favourable, there is a higher likelihood that the commodity shares and luxury goods companies will be bid.

  • If oil advances strongly and the Rand is weak, JSE consumer discretionary shares may not perform well as consumers would have their spending power curtailed by possible/pending petrol increases and/or input costs.

  • Most days, when Naspers/Prosus is strong, Firstrand and MTN is weak. This is a favoured HF trade. The opposite applies. Be open to exploiting this relationship to generate cash flow.

  • Watch Tencent in Hong Kong. Adverse moves may guide on the direction for NPN/PRX.

  • Watch BABA in pre-market (US). Adverse moves may guide on the direction for NPN/PRX.

  • The most volatile i.e. cash generative period is from 9-11am (London/European open) as well as from 3-5pm (US market open).

  • Leading sectors in the US often translate to the following day European session. If energy (XLE) is strong, then Sasol will most likely follow suit (or not).

  • Use AUDJPY as a leading indicator for risk. Historically, the pair has been a clear guide to short and medium term sentiment.


Lester Davids

Analyst: Unum Capital

42 views0 comments

Comments


bottom of page