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South 32: Running +24%. Short Term Traders Consider Taking Profits + Updated Multi-Time Frame View

  • Writer: Lester Davids
    Lester Davids
  • 1 day ago
  • 3 min read

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

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Highlights: South32 Ltd (Multi-Time Frame View)


  • Fractal Momentum Surge: A powerful "Momentum Trinity" has formed. The Ultra Short Term (2-period) indicators on the Daily (95.20), Weekly (88.74), and Monthly (91.87) charts are all simultaneously trading in the "High Bullish Momentum" or "Overbought" tiers. This indicates a concerted wave of buying pressure across every timeframe, from day traders to macro funds.

  • Cyclical Turnaround: Unlike stocks making new all-time highs, South32 is in the early stages of a massive cyclical recovery. The Monthly chart shows the Base Term trend (48.40) curling upwards from deep lows. This "sleeping giant" signal suggests that while the short-term move is aggressive, the long-term rally has significant runway remaining before it hits structural exhaustion.

  • Daily Overheat Warning: The Daily chart is the immediate concern. With the 2-Day momentum reading >95, the stock is statistically overextended in the very short term. Stocks rarely maintain this velocity without a "cooling off" lateral consolidation or a sharp intraday flush to reset the gauge.

  • The Weekly "Engine Room": The Weekly chart provides the most compelling bullish argument. All four trend timeframes are sloping aggressively upwards, with the Base Term trend (14-week) successfully reclaiming the "Neutral/Strong" border (57.62). This confirms that the medium-term trend has shifted from bearish to bullish.

  • Breakout at Resistance: The price action is currently challenging the major multi-year pivot zone around 3,700c - 3,750c. A definitive monthly close above this level would technically confirm a massive "double bottom" or accumulation reversal pattern, unlocking targets above 4,500c.

  • Best Action Timeline:

    • 3 to 5 days (1 week): Wait / Trim. The Daily RSI >95 suggests chasing here is dangerous. Expect choppy price action or a minor pullback to 3,550c - 3,600c.

    • 6 to 10 days (2 weeks): Accumulate. Once the daily "overbought" reading cools (ideally resetting to ~50), look to enter long positions, using the Weekly trend strength as your bias.

    • 11 to 15 days (3 weeks): Ride the Trend. If 3,600c holds as support, the aligned Weekly momentum should drive the next impulsive leg higher towards 4,000c.

    • 16 to 20 days (4 weeks): Monitor Monthly Close. A monthly close above 3,725c confirms the secular turnaround is active.


Bullish Scenario: Blue Sky Breakout: The sheer force of the "Fractal Surge" blows through the 3,750c resistance without pausing. Short sellers are forced to cover, driving the price rapidly toward the psychological 4,000c handle.


Base Scenario: Bull Flag Consolidation: The stock pauses at resistance to digest the recent +15% move. Price consolidates between 3,550c and 3,750c, allowing the overheated Daily momentum to reset while the Weekly trend catches up.


Bearish Scenario: Resistance Rejection: The stock fails to clear the 3,750c ceiling. The overbought Daily signal triggers a sharp reversal, sending the price back down to retest the breakout base at 3,400c.

Core Thesis South32 is an "early-stage recovery" play. While short-term indicators (Daily) are flashing "Overbought" warnings similar to other resource stocks, the long-term (Monthly) structure is far less extended, offering better long-term risk/reward. The thesis is bullish, but tactical patience is required to avoid buying the exact short-term top of this daily cycle. Wait for the dip, then trust the weekly trend.


Comprehensive Summary The dashboard shows a market transitioning from "bottoming" to "trending." The synchronization of the fast-twitch indicators across all three timeframes is a rare signal of total market consensus. However, the Monthly Base Trend is still only "Neutral," meaning the stock still has to prove it can hold these gains to convince long-term asset managers. The setup favors buying dips rather than chasing breakouts.


Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis (Weekly Focus) Note: This block focuses on the Weekly timeframe as the "bridge" between the Daily noise and Monthly macro.


Ultra Short Term Indication: HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM Slope: Sharply Upwards Short Term Indication: HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM Slope: Sharply Upwards Mid Term Indication: STRONG Slope: Sharply Upwards Base Term Indication: NEUTRAL / STRONG Slope: Sharply Upwards


Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Combined Range Focus) Bullish Confirmation: A weekly close above 3,750c confirms the major trend reversal. Bearish Invalidation: A close back below 3,400c would negate the current bullish impulse and suggest the stock is still stuck in its long-term range.


Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance: 3,750c (Major Structural Pivot). Target 1: 4,000c (Psychological). Pivot Support: 3,550c (Intraday Breakout Level). Critical Structural Support: 3,400c (Weekly Higher Low).


Previous Post (08 October): South 32: Running +14%. Short Term Traders Consider Taking (Partial) Profits


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Previous Post (21 September): 🎥Watch (Video): A Bit of Mean Reversion Due...?


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Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital



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