Sibanye Stillwater: Actionable Areas & Medium Term Outlook

Research Notes October 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025

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Sibanye-Stillwater is in a powerful, structural base-building phase on the weekly chart after a deep multi-year bear market, having recently failed to sustain a rally above its 2022 highs.

Current Price: 4817c.

The core thesis is that the price is undergoing a significant correction within the structural recovery, presenting a potential "buy-the-dip" opportunity if the key support zone holds.

The weekly momentum indicates a massive contraction of buying pressure after the stock hit recent highs:

• Ultra Short-Term Momentum: This is deep in the WEAK tier and sloping steeply downwards, indicating the current sell-off pressure is intense and aggressive.

• Short-Term Momentum: This is in the NEUTRAL tier and sloping steeply downwards, confirming the aggressive, short-term trend reversal is firmly in control.

• Mid-Term Momentum: This is firmly in the NEUTRAL tier and sloping sideways, showing the multi-month rally structure is neutralizing its bullish bias.

• Base Term Momentum: This is still in the NEUTRAL tier and sloping sideways, underscoring that the primary long-term trend remains in a broad consolidation.

The critical technical challenge is for the price to find support quickly to prevent a collapse to the structural lows. The most relevant buying zone for the larger trend is the Mid-Term Support/Pivot (3800c - 3500c).

Actionable Zones (Weekly)

For traders looking to position, the current price (4817c) is approaching the crucial Ultra Short-Term Decision zone of 4600c - 4400c. A strong rebound from this area would confirm the short-term low. The key Short-Term Resistance at 5200c - 5500c must be cleared to confirm the recovery has resumed. The major structural buying opportunity lies at the Mid-Term Support/Pivot (3800c - 3500c), which must hold to sustain the overall recovery trend. The ultimate breakdown level is the Base Term Support (2800c - 2500c).

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital