💡Sasol The Leader: The Probabilities Going Forward

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026

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Published Thursday, 26 March (After Market Close), for Friday, 27 March.

This note considers the medium to long term technical outlook for Sasol.

BOTTOM LINE: Too late to buy, but too early to sell/short. Overbought conditions can remain in place for extended periods and we don't want to get caught in a short squeeze. Remain patient and WAIT for parabolic-like slope/trend and exhaustive candle structure to initiate a short/sell position.

Analyst's Current Price Action Model Reading (Maximum Outlook: 8 Week, Extending To 10)

SASOL (SOL) – MACRO & DAILY INTEGRATION (AS OF MARCH 26, 2026)

KEY TAKEAWAY: Sasol has staged a violent, +50% macro reversal this month, driving near-term trailing momentum into extreme overbought territory; traders must exercise discipline and avoid chasing this vertical move, waiting instead for a pullback to the daily 8-EMA or a clear overextension signal to short against overhead structural resistance.

• CONVICTION / SIZING: Defensive / Cash (Do not chase the parabolic monthly candle; wait for a structural reset).

• THESIS INVALIDATION: A sustained consolidation holding near these highs, or a powerful volume breakout closing above the primary macro resistance at 27,213.

• PROBABLE R:R: Highly Unattractive for buyers. Buying now means risking a standard daily pullback (which could be 10-15% given the volatility) just to target the first major resistance zone at ~27k.

Integrated Summary For Sasol (SOL), integrating the daily model with the monthly chart reveals a textbook "exhaustion risk" setup. On the macro scale, the stock has violently reversed off its structural lows, surging from ~13,500 to nearly 22,000 in a single month. Because of this aggressive buying, the daily Short Term (1 to 10 days) model has officially flagged the 7-day trend as "overbought," while the 14-day trend remains "very bullish". The Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) explicitly warns traders: "do not enter long here." The tactical probability favors waiting "for 8 EMA to play next minor bounce" or waiting "for overextension to short sell" as the price stretches toward the heavy historical supply lines at 27,213 and 32,001. The Long Term perspective firmly corroborates this defensive stance, noting that one "would not enter long here risk reward unattractive".

Full Technical Take Report (Daily Model Context)

• Short Term (approx. 1 to 10 days):

  • 7-Day Trend: Overbought

  • 14-Day Trend: Very Bullish

  • Action: No reading available (Momentum is stretched beyond standard deviations).

• Medium Term (approx. 2 to 4 weeks): * Status: Aggressive buying activity.

  • Action: Do not enter long here - wait for 8 EMA to play next minor bounce - alternatively wait for overextension to short sell.

• Long Term (approx. 5 to 8 weeks):

  • Status: Risk reward unattractive.

  • Action: Would not enter long here.

Sasol Monthly Chart Below:

Thirteen months ago, (February 2025), our research triggered a triple buy reading at R79. Today (Thursday 26 March), the share reached a multi-month high of R219.

Thirteen (13) months ago, we published a note called: 'Zooming Out: Sasol'. Included in that note was the identification of the key long term support level as well as the Price Action Model that gave us a TRIPLE BUY reading - a rarity on the model.

From this level, we saw the price trade lower, offering the opportunity to accumulate shares, before staging one of the strong multi-year recoveries from below R55 in April 2025 to a high of R212 yesterday. The original note can be found here > https://www.unum.capital/post/sasol-zoom-out

SOL PRICE ACTION MODEL READING on 10-February-2025

SOL WEEKLY Chart on 10-February-2025

This PREMIUM NOTE considers the LONG TERM OUTLOOK for Sasol, which includes the updated momentum analysis as well as the long term chart, with key resistance zones in the event of a medium term overextension.

This note is available to active trading clients (trades placed within the last 10 trading sessions). Here, you get to see what we see. For access, clients can email me directly at lester@unum.co.za

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital