S&P 500 Index

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026

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Published on Sunday 08 March for Monday 09 March

Analyst View:

The past 4 months has seen the index trade in a narrow range with resistance capped around the closely-watched 7000 level. On 28 October, our analysis, which included our data, showed the S&P 500 index in exhibiting broadly overbought conditions, which was subsequently followed by the aforementioned sideways range. Friday saw the lowest close since December which was below the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) as well as below the medium term 21-week EMA. While the price remains above it's rising 200-day moving average, the index remains vulnerable to a 'flush' below this level (the 200-day SMA). This view is driven by the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which may place further upside pressure on energy market (including oil) and which has a knock-on effect for the global economy (including inflation). Like many others, I will admit that I DON'T KNOW HOW FINANCIAL MARKET PRICES WILL REACT ON MONDAY MORNING. It is likely that volatility will continue rise which may see risk assets (including equities) being sold. With regard to the S&P 500 Index, it may be worth preparing for a larger-than-normal decline, which would EVENTUALLY present a buying opportunity. The attached chart highlights key support levels, with the annotations reflecting the key percentage (%) drawdown levels. For example, an 8.6% decline would see the index trade at the June 2025 breakout level, however, a pullback BELOW this level is not out of the question.

Automated View (Generated With Gemini Using Analyst's Data):

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital