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How To Trade Sibanye Stillwater + Current Risks & Probabilities

  • Writer: Lester Davids
    Lester Davids
  • 9 hours ago
  • 3 min read

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Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026

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NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes


Earlier this month (Sunday 07 June) we highlighted the share as a buying opportunity, under the condition that the price traded into the provisional buy range. The share traded into the buy range and rebound strongly (+19%), helping traders lock in profit and generate cash flow. We have since seen the share roll back over, remaining weak but possibly offering an opportunity to buy on lower levels. The price action model highlights a 'weak' regime while the short term reading states the share is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. The medium term reading notes aggressive selling while warning traders to wait for the lower time frames to stabilize. On the highest time frame, there is a 'probability of a small rebound'.


Best probability provisional buy range: 3200c to 3420c

Stop-loss: 3010c

Target: Open


All levels are subject to change as the news flow and price action develops.




Previous Post (Friday, 12 June):

🟩Making Money on Sibanye Stillwater ✔ Take Profit On This Rebound +7.4%


The share traded below 3700c (low of 3694c), giving traders an opportunity to accumulate. The share is currently higher by 7.4% from 3700c. For short term traders, the rebound creates an opportunity to take profit.



Previous Post (Sunday 07 June)

💡🟩JSE Platinum Share: Bearish Trend, But Prints Below 3700c Creates Oversold Buying (Rebound) Opportunity


(1) regime = high bearish momentum / approaching oversold

(2) 200d breakdown

(3) very poor candle structure

(4) trading on neckline support (likely to break lower)

(5) unfilled gap at ~4000c and ~3819c

(6) aggressive selling candle take it down to the 200-week near 3700c-3400c



READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS


For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital.


The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include:

  • Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes

  • Momentum indicators

  • Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance

  • Candle structure

  • Moving averages and standard deviation


Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.


THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

  • It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

  • The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

  • Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

  • Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

  • Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

  • Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

  • Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

  • Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

  • Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

  • Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

  • Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

  • Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

  • Whether a share lacks directional bias.

  • The data set is available in real-time (on request)

  • The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.


Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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