Trading Sibanye Stillwater

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026

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Published: Monday, 26 January 2026

Time: 18h24

Closing Price: 8,081c (ZAR)

1D Change: +3.88%

Multi-Frame Action: 🟢 Parabolic (D) 🟢 Breakout (W) 🟢 Vertical (M)

Technical Upside: Major Structural Breakout. Clearing multi-year resistance at 8,000c.

Target: 8,500c – 9,000c. Momentum Extension.

Momentum Signal: "Lock-Out" Extreme.

Risk / Invalidation: Close below 7,500c (Immediate Breakout Gap).

Valuation Basket: High Beta / Short Squeeze / Operational Leverage

Primary Driver: PGM Basket Surge (Palladium), Gold Strength, and Aggressive Short Covering.

Reward-to-Risk Assessment: 🟢 Long: Moderate/High (Trend is powerful, but entry is late and volatility is extreme) | 🔴 Short: Very Poor (Fighting a vertical trend is dangerous).

MARKET STRUCTURE & VOLUME VALIDATION

Volume Profile: The price action is vertical across all timeframes, indicative of a violent "panic buy" scenario. The stock has surged through the psychological 8,000c resistance level without pausing. This structure is typical of a forced liquidation of short positions (short squeeze) combined with aggressive institutional chasing.

Liquidity Zones: The 8,000c level has flipped from major resistance to immediate psychological support. Below that, the 7,000c – 7,200c zone represents the breakout shelf. The current move is in "Blue Sky" discovery relative to recent years, targeting the 2021/2022 cycle highs.

Divergences: None. Price and Momentum are synchronized in a hyper-aggressive extension. The Daily RSI reaching 98.89 is a statistical anomaly, confirming that the stock is currently detached from standard mean-reversion mechanics and is trading purely on flow.

MOMENTUM PROFILE (WEEKLY)

Tactical Momentum: Extreme Overbought. The Weekly RSI is at 97.31. Readings this high are rare and characterize a "Lock-Out" rally where the asset refuses to pull back, forcing buyers to pay up or miss the trade entirely.

Fast Weekly: Strong. The Daily chart confirms the parabolic nature with an RSI near 99, showing no signs of exhaustion yet.

Structural Trend: Bullish Breakout. The Monthly chart shows a massive V-shape recovery that has effectively erased the prior downtrend in a single impulse.

Primary Trend: Bullish. SSW has transitioned from a deep value recovery play to a high-momentum leader.

CORE THESIS Sibanye Stillwater is currently the highest-beta vehicle for the PGM recovery theme. The technicals are exhibiting "Lock-Out" characteristics with RSI readings >97 across multiple timeframes. This suggests a market in a frenzy, likely driven by a squeeze. While a pullback is inevitable given the statistical extension, the trend is currently vertical. The strategy is to respect the momentum: do not short the "overbought" signal, as volatility and price can expand significantly further in a squeeze environment.

SSW has nearly completed our long term cycle view, published 28 July 2024, with the price now at above 8000c, from a low of around 1400c. Well done to clients and shareholders.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital