TFG: Price Action Model Readings🟥Short Term Risks🟩Medium Term Reward + Relative Distance Data Point

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026

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Foschini relative to the JSE All Share Index. For now, both the sector & stock remain under serious pressure. A data point from a mean reversion perspective (relative distance chart). TFG is trading 62% below it's 200-week relative to the JSE All Share Index. Note the prior years' extension & snapback. Possibly more downside but a chart worth noting.

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Please Note: This research/analysis may NOT reflect the entire view on the instrument discussed. Other technical valuation models may include: Momentum Analysis, the Price Action Model, Momentum Matrix, Slope Analysis & Relative Analysis among others.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

• It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

• The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

• Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

• Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

• Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

• Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

• Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

• Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

• Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

• Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

• Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

• Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

• Whether a share lacks directional bias.

• The data set is available in real-time (on request)

• The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital