Trading Thungela Resources: Here's What You Need To Know

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025

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High Five: Key Points To Note

• Dominant Bearish Structure: Thungela remains trapped in a severe long-term downtrend, having lost significant value from its all-time highs. The primary structural indicators remain deeply entrenched in "Weak" territory, confirming bears are still in ultimate control.

• Aggressive Mean Reversion: A sharp counter-trend bounce is actively underway. The fastest momentum indicator has violently swung from oversold conditions straight into the "Strong" tier, signaling an acute short-covering rally or aggressive speculative buying at these lows.

• Momentum Disconnect: A massive divergence currently exists. While the ultra-short-term trend is flashing bullish signals, the mid and base-term trends remain bearish. This conflict typifies a volatile "bear market rally" rather than a sustainable recovery at this stage.

• Base Trend Weakness: Crucially, the 14-Week Base trend remains stuck in the "Weak" tier (below 42). Until this core indicator can at least reclaim "Neutral" territory, any upside price action must be viewed with skepticism as a likely selling opportunity for longer-term players.

• Critical Resistance Test: Price is approaching the top of its recent consolidation range. A failure to break decisively above the 8500 - 9000c zone will likely see the dominant downtrend resume and test recent lows.

The stock is undergoing a volatile mean-reversion bounce within the context of a firmly established long-term bear market.

Core Thesis TGA is experiencing a classic "oversold bounce" within a structural downtrend. The extreme speed of the recovery in the Ultra Short Term momentum suggests aggressive short-covering. However, the lack of support from Mid and Base term trends defines this strictly as a counter-trend trading opportunity for now, rather than a confirmed long-term investment reversal. The thesis remains cautiously bearish on a structural level until major overhead resistance is cleared.

Comprehensive Summary The momentum profile for TGA is highly fractured. The long-term structure is damaged, evidenced by the Base Term trend languishing in the WEAK tier. However, short-term dynamics have shifted violently bullish, likely due to an absence of sellers at extreme lows rather than sustained institutional accumulation. This creates a high-risk, high-volatility environment where short-term gains can be rapid but are vulnerable to sudden reversals as they meet established long-term supply zones.

Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis The Ultra Short Term trend has surged into the STRONG tier and is sloping Sharply Upwards, reflecting the acute immediate buying pressure. The Short Term trend has recovered into the NEUTRAL zone and is sloping Upwards, confirming the tactical bounce is gaining some traction. The Mid Term trend remains in the WEAK tier, though it is currently sloping Flat to slightly Up, indicating stabilization but not recovery. The Base Term trend is also in the WEAK tier and sloping Flat, confirming that the long-term bearish inertia has not yet been overcome.

Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) The stock is currently attempting a tactical reversal from deep lows. Bullish Reversal Potential: A sustained weekly close above 9000c is needed to confirm a larger intermediate-term bottom and potentially target the 10000c psychological level. Bearish Continuation Risk: Rejection near current levels (approx. 8000 - 8500c) would likely result in a "dead cat bounce" scenario, leading to a retest of the 7000c lows.

Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance is firmly established between 8500 and 9000c. Structural Resistance is higher at the 10000c round number. Critical Support is located at the recent cycle lows around 6800 - 7200c; a break below this would signal the next leg down in the major bear trend.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital