Trading Notes: $MNP $SPP $CFR $BVT $TRU

Research Notes October 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025

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Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (CFR)

Richemont has pulled back after a solid multi-month recovery and is now testing a key pivot area. The momentum profile shows a sharp loss of short-term velocity, suggesting the current trend is pausing, not reversing. Current Price: 345533c. The core thesis for Richemont hinges on whether the recent sharp drop is merely a technical correction—a re-entry point for bulls—or the start of a deep structural reversal. The Ultra Short-Term momentum (19.49) is deep in the HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERSOLD tier, signaling that sellers are exhausted and an immediate technical bounce is highly probable, favoring a short-term long trade. The first key zone for this rebound to stabilize is the Ultra Short-Term Buy Zone (340000c - 335000c). If the price successfully launches from this area, the initial challenge will be the Short-Term Resistance (351500c - 355000c). Crucially, the Mid-Term Support/Pivot (327000c - 320000c) must hold to preserve the overall recovery structure; failure here would expose the major Base Term Support (290000c) and invalidate the recent uptrend.

Spar Group (SPP)

Spar is trading in a defined base-building pattern after a deep, multi-year decline. The stock recently bounced hard off structural support but is now facing profit-taking near a critical resistance ceiling. Current Price: 10666c. The core thesis for Spar hinges on whether the current upward velocity can breach the significant overhead resistance at 11000c - 11200c to end its multi-year base-building. The Ultra Short-Term momentum (81.36) is deep in the HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT tier, signaling that the current bounce is accelerating and due for an immediate pause or pullback, yet has strong upward conviction. The Mid-Term momentum (62.84) is firmly in the STRONG tier, suggesting the three-month recovery trend has structural integrity. If the stock pulls back, the Mid-Term Support/Pivot (10200c - 10000c) is the crucial area that must hold to sustain the recovery; failure to hold this level would risk a collapse toward the Base Term Support (9650c - 9500c). A successful breakout targets the Major Long-Term Resistance (13000c).

MNP: Mondi plc

Mondi is currently in a strong downward trend, which has only recently paused to initiate an aggressive technical bounce. Current Price: 19542c. The Ultra Short-Term momentum (75.03) is firmly in the STRONG tier and sloping steeply upwards, confirming that an aggressive, short-term relief rally is underway. This rally has pushed the Short-Term momentum (68.71) into the STRONG tier, but the underlying Mid-Term (38.96) and Base Term (31.57) momentum remains in the WEAK tier, reinforcing the dominant long-term bearish structure. The rally is expected to encounter major resistance at 21500c - 22000c, which is the key Short-Term Resistance area; failure to clear this will signal the return of the sellers. The low of the move is the critical Base Term Support at 19000c - 18500c; a break below this confirms a major bearish continuation.

BVT: Bidvest Group Limited

Bidvest is attempting to bottom out after a significant decline and is currently in a decisive bounce phase. Current Price: 22676c. The momentum profile shows high conviction in this bounce: both the Ultra Short-Term (77.31) and Short-Term (76.71) momentum indicators are in the STRONG tier and sloping sharply upwards, signaling accelerating buying pressure. However, the Mid-Term (65.45) and Base Term (63.39) momentum remains in the STRONG tier, suggesting the price has room to run before hitting overbought exhaustion. The immediate technical task is to challenge the Short-Term Resistance at 23500c - 24000c. The major structural support lies at the low of the current move, which acts as the crucial Base Term Support (20400c). A successful break above 24000c would open the path to the Mid-Term Resistance around 26000c.

TRU: Truworths International Limited

Truworths is deep in a structural decline but has initiated a strong, high-velocity technical bounce off its recent lows. Current Price: 5625c. The short-term picture is aggressively bullish, with both Ultra Short-Term (86.15) and Short-Term (73.17) momentum indicators in the HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT and STRONG tiers respectively, and sloping upwards. However, the Mid-Term (57.29) and Base Term (48.56) momentum indicators are still in the NEUTRAL tier, confirming the overall trend structure is not yet bullish. The key technical challenge is the Short-Term Resistance at 6000c - 6200c. A successful break here would signal a major counter-trend rally, targeting the Mid-Term Resistance around 7000c. The critical Base Term Support lies at the recent low of 5250c; a failure here confirms a fresh bearish continuation.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital