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Trading Around The Numbers: Non-Farm Payrolls

Writer's picture: Luke HollandLuke Holland

Friday, 4 October at 14h30


Non-Farm Payrolls Set to Surprise as Market Dust Settles

The dust has settled following the Fed's recent 50 bps rate cut, and the focus now shifts to this Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The consensus stands at 145K, but there are signs that job creation for September may come in stronger than expected. With the market still reacting to the recent rate cut, this NFP release could ignite significant market volatility across forex and commodities.

Another key figure to watch is the U.S. unemployment rate, currently at 4.2%. If this number comes in higher, it could further incentivize the Fed to consider another 50 bps rate cut in December, as rising unemployment may signal economic softening.


This will be a critical factor in shaping the outlook for U.S. interest rates and market sentiment moving forward.


Key Market Impacts:

  • USD: A stronger-than-expected NFP figure could boost the dollar, as it reflects continued economic strength, reducing the likelihood of further rate cuts. However, if the unemployment rate ticks higher, expectations of another 50 bps cut in December may grow, potentially dampening the dollar’s rally.

  • Gold: Gold remains highly sensitive to rate expectations. If the unemployment rate increases and further rate cuts are expected, gold could gain momentum as a safe-haven asset. Conversely, a strong NFP and stable unemployment could push gold lower as the USD strengthens.

  • Equities: A solid NFP report paired with stable unemployment could lift confidence in growth stocks, though a higher unemployment rate might increase volatility in rate-sensitive sectors as markets price in more aggressive Fed action in December.


Now that the 50 bps rate cut has been absorbed by the market, the NFP and unemployment rate will be crucial in guiding the Fed’s next move. Positioning yourself ahead of these key numbers could lead to profitable opportunities.


Stay ahead of the curve with Unum Trade’s expert insights and strategies, and be ready to act this Friday.

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